West Coast Late-Season RPI Report (May 14)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in Orange, past opponents in blue)

Big West 

Cal State Fullerton 15 (-1) - 32-15, 14-4 (2-1 at UCSB) 
Long Beach 59 (-8 ) - 25-23, 12-6 (1-0 vs. LMU, 1-2 at UC Davis) 
Irvine 69 (-8 ) - 28-20, 12-9 (0-1 at USD, 1-2 at Northridge) 
Cal Poly 86 (-9) - 29-20, 10-8 (2-1 vs. Bakersfield) 
Northridge 114 (+11) - 22-24, 9-9 (2-1 vs. Irvine)
UCSB 126 (+8 ) - 24-24, 10-11 (1-2 vs. Fullerton)  
Riverside 164 (+4) - 19-27, 7-11 (1-0 vs. LMU, 2-1 at Pacific)
UC Davis 188 (+9) - 20-27, 8-10 (0-1 at Nevada, 2-1 vs. Long Beach)
Pacific 248 (-7) - 12-37, 2-16 (0-1 vs. USF, 1-2 vs. Riverside) 

IN (1) - Fullerton.  The Titans are a lock to be in a regional for the 21st straight season and have a good chance at being a regional host if they go 5-1 in their six games before the final game of the Long Beach series (the hosting sites are announced before that game will be played) but have almost no chance of being a national seed.

BUBBLE (1) - Long Beach.  Long Beach isn't listed in the RPI needs report with having a chance to get their RPI to 45 or better by winning their last seven games with three of them being played vs. RPI anchor Pacific.  The series loss at Davis pretty much assured Long Beach of only getting into the post-season by winning the automatic bid.  If Long Beach makes the field, they would end up being a 3 seed, probably at UCLA (if Fullerton hosts a regional) or Stanford.

OUT (7) - Irvine, Cal Poly, Northridge, UCSB, Riverside, UC Davis, Pacific.

Irvine probably needed to go at least 9-3 in their final twelve games going into the week to get into a regional.  After a loss at USD and three days in the Valley at Northridge and suffering a series loss, they will miss the post-season for the first time since 2005.


Pac 11

UCLA 3 (NC) - 35-13, 15-9 (1-0 at P'dine, 3-0 at Washington)  
Oregon 5 (NC) - 37-14, 18-8 (1-0 vs. OSU, 2-0 vs. USC - 3rd game Mon)
Stanford 12 (+3) - 32-15, 14-10 (0-1 at San Jose, 3-0 vs. WSU)
Arizona 17 (+3) - 33-15, 16-8 (3-0 at Cal)
ASU 21 (+9) - 32-17, 14-10 - INELIGIBLE FOR POST-SEASON (3-0 at Gonzaga)
OSU 34 (-6) - 32-17, 13-11 (0-1 at Oregon, 2-1 at Utah)
Washington 52 (-10) - 26-21, 11-13 (0-3 vs. UCLA)
Cal 75 (NC) - 25-22, 9-15 (0-3 vs. Arizona)
USC 78 (-5) - 22-23, 7-15 (0-2 at Oregon -3rd game Mon)
WSU 81 (+1) - 24-23, 9-14 (1-0 vs. Portland, 0-3 at Stanford)
Utah 203 (NC) - 13-35, 6-18 (1-2 vs. OSU)

IN (5) - UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, OSU.  UCLA and Oregon have the inside track on national seeds - UCLA due to their RPI and Oregon due to series wins AT UCLA, Stanford and Arizona that have them in first place.  Fullerton, Stanford and Arizona are probably battling for two western regional host sites with the other likely to end up as a 2 seed at the one that is sent packing.  Arizona swept Stanford in Tucson but Stanford has an easy finishing stretch (at Utah, Cal) to shoot up in the conf standings.  OSU is going to be a 2 or 3 seed, depending on how they finish, wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

BUBBLE (1) - Washington.  The Huskies played their way into at-large consideration by going 5-1 in their two previous Pac 11 series before being swept at home by UCLA.  They probably need to go 4-2 in their last two series (at ASU, WSU) to get their conf record to .500 in order to get into a regional for the first time in eight years since Tim Lincecum pitched there.  They would be a 3 seed wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

OUT (5) - ASU, USC, Cal, WSU, Utah.


WCC

San Diego 29 (-4) - 38-13, 14-7 (1-0 vs. Irvine, 1-2 vs. LMU)
P'dine 33 (+5) - 29-19, 12-6 (0-1 vs. UCLA, 3-0 vs. BYU)
Gonzaga 51 (-14) - 29-22, 9-9 (0-3 vs. ASU)
LMU 92 (+6) - 23-23, 11-7 (0-1 at Long Beach, 0-1 at Riverside, 2-1 at USD) 
Portland 97 (-10) - 23-18, 12-9 (0-1 at WSU, 2-1 vs. St. Mary's)
St. Mary's 104 (-19) - 23-26, 7-14 (0-1 at Sac State, 1-2 at Portland)
USF 119 (+2) - 26-28, 12-9 (1-0 at Pacific, 3-0 vs. Santa Clara)
BYU 145 (-9) - 19-24, 7-11 (1-0 vs. Southern Utah, 0-3 at P'dine)
Santa Clara 157 (-26) - 20-23, 3-15 (0-3 at USF)

IN (2) - San Diego, P'dine.  The Toreros are looking like they will be a 2 seed at UCLA unless the roof caves in their last two series (LMU, at P'dine).  It almost did before they won the final game of the LMU series.  P'dine has won five straight conf series to move into the pretty safe category as long as they don't get run off the field in their last two series (at LMU, USD) to feel safe.  They are looking like they will be a 3 seed at Fullerton (if they host a regional) or UCLA.

BUBBLE (2) - Gonzaga, LMU.   Gonzaga looked like a lock a few weeks ago but they have lost 11 of their last 14 games and would probably be on the outside looking in if the selection committee was picking teams today.  They probably need to go at least 5-2 the next two weeks to play their way back into consideration.  LMU is listed here because they are still in the race to win the WCC title (no shot at an at-large) after winning the series at USD over the weekend.  They have a must win series at home with P'dine this weekend.  If they pulled off the miracle and finished ahead of USD and P'dine they would be looking at a 4 seed at UCLA or Fullerton.

OUT (5) - St. Mary's, Portland, USF, Santa Clara, BYU.


WAC

New Mexico State 30 (-3) - 31-19, 8-7 (1-2 vs. Fresno State)
Hawaii 73 (-8 ) - 28-12, 8-7 (0-3 at Sac State)
Nevada 68 (+12) - 30-20, 10-5 (1-0 vs. UC Davis, 3-0 vs. San Jose State)
La. Tech 109 (NC) - 23-22, 6-9 (DNP)
Sac State 88 (+26) - 27-23, 11-7 (1-0 vs. St. Mary's, 3-0 vs. Hawaii)
Fresno State 121 (+11) - 23-24, 6-9 (2-1 at NMSU)
San Jose State 194 (-7) - 21-23, 5-10 (0-3 at Nevada)

IN - None.  The only guarantee is the winner of the conf tournament getting the automatic bid.

BUBBLE (1) - NMSU.  The Aggies have lost eight of nine to go from being a lock to being on the bubble.  They have five road games to finish up the regular season (at New Mexico, at Bakersfield, at San Jose).  Their RPI is still keeping them in the at-large conversation despite falling to third in the conf standings.  If they are in a regional they are likely to be a 3 seed at Arizona (if they host) or at a regional in Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M or Rice).

OUT (6) - Nevada, Hawaii, Sac State, La Tech, Fresno, San Jose.  One of these teams will miss out on the WAC tournament and the other five are hoping the roulette wheel lands on their number in the WAC tournament to win the automatic bid.


MWC

TCU 32 (+1) - 32-16, 16-5 (3-0 at Air Force)
New Mexico 80 (+8 ) - 29-22, 15-6 (2-1 at UNLV)
San Diego State 162 (-4) - 22-30, 11-10 (0-3 at Texas A&M)
UNLV 225 (-1) - 23-29, 7-17 (1-2 vs. New Mexico)
Air Force 260 (-2) - 11-36, 5-16 (0-3 vs. TCU)

IN (1) - TCU.  The Horned Frogs fought thru a ton of injuries but are getting healthy and playing well at the right time.  They are looking like a 2 or 3 seed, depending on how they finish, in a regional in Texas (Baylor, Rice or Texas A&M).

OUT (4) - New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Air Force.  New Mexico buried themselves by starting 2-9 and will be a dangerous team for TCU in the MWC tournament (teams split series, each winning at home).  The other three teams look like they will just be opponents for TCU and UNM to play in the MWC tournament.


Independents/Others

Utah Valley 66 (-6) - 39-11, 24-0 (4-0 at New York Tech)
Bakersfield 159 (+8 ) - 21-25 (1-2 at Cal Poly)
Seattle 198 (-7) - 18-22 (1-2 at Ohio State)

BUBBLE (1) - Utah Valley.  Their RPI went up from 60 to 66 after playing an RPI anchor last week.  They have won 32 in a row and could end up winning 40 in a row to finish 47-11 and if they do, the NCAA selection committee will have an interesting decision on their hands.

OUT (2) - Bakersfield, Seattle.