Fullerton Super Regional Preview

By FullertonBaseballFan
(Courtesy Titan Central)


Louisville Cardinals

Overall Record – 47-16
Conference Record – 19-7 (1st place)
RPI/ISR/SOS – 16/24/89
Record against regional teams – 8-5
How they qualified for a regional – Won the Big East Conference Tournament (Cincinnati 12-2, Notre Dame 12-2, 5-6, 7-6, UConn 11-3)
How they qualified for a super regional – Won the Louisville Regional (Indiana 8-2, Middle Tennessee State 3-2, Vanderbilt 4-8, 5-3)

Season Summary

Louisville came into this season with high expectations after returning most of the team that went 41-21 in 2008 and was the runner-up in the Georgia Regional in a rebuilding year after going to the College World Series in 2007. The Cardinals were ranked in the top 25 in every major pre-season poll before going on the road to Florida to start the season and were swept in a three game series in Gainesville. Louisville took advantage of a soft schedule to rebound from that series to go 28-8 before losing a home series to Notre Dame. That series was a wakeup call for the Cardinals because they have gone on an 18-3 streak heading into the super regional at Fullerton.

Louisville has a powerful offense that is in the top 30 in the country in both scoring and HR’s but they aren’t just a station to station team. The Cardinals are also in the top 40 in the nation in SB’s and have five players with 12+ SB’s. Louisville has a field turf playing surface so they used their good team speed to their advantage to go 27-7 at home. The Cardinals don’t bunt much unless it is an obvious situation with one of their lesser hitters and most of them will be aggressive and come out swinging, although the do have solid plate discipline and average about 4 BB’s per game and are in the top 10 in the country in HBP’s.

Louisville is a balanced team because they also have a solid pitching staff led by one of the better Fri SP’s in the country. The Cardinals have a deep pitching staff and have nine pitchers that they can rely on to be productive. Louisville is in the top 20 nationally in ERA, H/9 IP and BB/9 IP and in the top 40 in K/9 IP. The Cardinals are 33-2 when leading after 7 innings and 37-1 when leading after 8 innings.

Offense

Park Factor according to Boyd’s World – 96 (decreases offense by 4%). Standard dimensions, field turf helps infielders.
Batting Average – .312 (NCAA ranking - 94)
Runs Per Game – 8.3 (29)
Home Runs – 83 (28)
Stolen Bases – 90 (40)
Slugging Percentage – .490 (52)
Walks – 256 (59)
HBP’s – 104 (10)
Sac Bunts – 30 (162)

Batting Order

LF – Soph Josh Richmond (RH – .316-7-31-5). Went 6-16 with one HR and two 2B’s in the regional.

2B – JR Adam Duvall (RH – .335-11-31-12). One of the guys that makes their offense go. Ranked 3rd in the country with 83 R’s and in the top 40 with 17 HBP’s. .569 SLG %.

1B – JR Andrew Clark (LH – .356-9-55-1). 4th in the country with 82 R’s. 8th in the country with 54 BB’s. Team leader with .490 OBP. .576 SLG %.

3B – JR Chris Dominguez (RH – .348-23-80-19). Big East player of the year the last two seasons. Ranked in the top ten nationally in HR’s, RBI’s, R’s and total bases. Team leading .715 SLG %. 4th round pick in 2008 draft and likely to go higher next week.

DH – Soph Phil Wunderlich (LH – .372-18-78-4). Provides good protection in the lineup for Dominguez. Ranked in the top 40 nationally in HR’s, RBI’s, total bases and HBP’s. 2nd on team with .690 SLG %.

RF – FR Ryan Wright (RH – .336-5-66-12). Good run producer who had the key three run HR in the regional clinching win.

C – JR Jeff Arnold (RH – .251-3-32-13). 3rd on team in SB’s. In the lineup for his defense and handling of the pitching staff.

SS – SR John Dao (RH – .253-0-22-3). Key RBI triple in the regional clinching game. Hit .356 in 2008. In the lineup for his defense.

CF – Soph Drew Haynes (LH – .213-0-13-17). Leads team with 8 SAC bunts (had 15 SAC’s in 2008) and is 2nd on team in SB’s.

Defense

Fielding .969 (55) – 78 errors. Solid defensively up the middle with Dao and Duvall, who have combined for 20 E’s. Clark (7 E’s) and Dominguez (23 E’s) are big guys who have had issues on the corners. Haynes and Wright have good speed in the OF.
Double Plays – 58 (29). Solid middle infield is helped by playing on field turf.
Stolen Base Attempts – 40-57 against Arnold.
WP’s/PB’s Allowed – 35, very good at blocking pitches.

Pitching

ERA – 4.14 (19)
BA – .290
HR – 57
H’s/9 IP – 8.9 (18)
BB’s/9 IP – 2.8 (14)
K’s/9 IP – 8.2 (32)

Starting Pitchers

JR Justin Marks (LHP – 11-2, 3.40 ERA, 17 apps, 15 starts, 1 save, 101 IP, 79 H, 32 BB, 125 K, .218 BA, 5 HR, 9 HBP, 2 WP). Big East Conf pitcher of the year. Projected to go in the first 3-4 rounds of the draft next week. School career leader in wins and strikeouts. Has a low 90’s fastball, curveball, slider and changeup and solid command of each. 8th in the country in K’s. 1.99 ERA in his last 23 IP with 31 K’s. 10-18 SB’s. Has picked off two runners.

Soph Dean Keikhefer (LHP – 6-4, 4.56 ERA, 17 apps, 12 starts, 73 IP, 87 H, 21 BB, 60 K, .300 BA, 3 HR, 13 HBP, 5 WP). Has been effective lately and allowed 3 R or less in each of his last three starts (3.05 ERA) against South Florida, Notre Dame and Middle Tennessee State in the regional. Leads the staff in HBP’s. 5-7 SB’s.

Soph Bob Revesz (LHP – 4-2, 4.48 ERA, 22 apps, 9 starts, 1 save, 60 IP, 73 H, 12 BB, 28 K, .300 BA, 4 HR, 4 HBP, 4 WP). Groundball pitcher who doesn’t throw hard and benefits from pitching his home games on the field turf. Has not gotten out of the fifth inning in four of his last five starts and could be replaced this weekend. 5-10 SB’s.

FR Tony Zych (RHP – 6-2, 3.25 ERA, 21 apps, 3 starts, 2 saves, 44 IP, 38 H, 10 BB, 31 K, .235 BA, 8 HR, 8 HBP, 4 WP). Midweek SP who has been very effective in two post-season starts – 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R allowed against UConn in the Big East tournament championship game and 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R against Vanderbilt in the regional clinching game. One of the harder throwers on the staff. Has had trouble with leaving the ball up and leads the staff in HR’s. 3-5 SB’s.

Relief Pitchers

Soph Gabriel Shaw (RHP – 3-1, 3.78 ERA, 28 apps, 3 saves, 50 IP, 46 H, 12 BB, 46 K, .245 BA, 7 HR, 3 HBP, 0 WP). Part of a closer by committee, with all three saves coming in the last four weeks. Hard thrower and sometimes leaves the ball up and is 2nd on the staff in HR’s allowed.

FR Derek Self (RHP – 7-0, 3.25 ERA, 21 apps, 2 starts, 1 save, 44 IP, 42 H, 13 BB, 34 K, .249 BA, 2 HR, 1 HBP, 1 WP). Has been part of the committee finishing games. Able to throw several innings (3 IP, 0 H, 0 R against MTSU in the regional and 6 IP, 2 R against Cincinnati in the Big East tournament).

SR Gavin Logsdon (LHP – 2-0, 4.24 ERA, 28 apps, 1 save, 34 IP, 39 H, 9 BB, 30 K, .285 BA, 3 HR, 2 HBP, 1 WP).

Soph Neil Holland (RHP – 0-0, 3.68 ERA, 15 apps, 1 start, 1 save, 22 IP, 24 H, 10 BB, 24 K, .289 BA, 2 HR, 3 HBP, 0 WP).

Soph Tyler Mathis (RHP – 1-3, 5.28 ERA, 13 apps, 2 starts, 29 IP, 23 H, 13 BB, 28 K, .215 BA, 1 HR, 11 HBP, 1 WP).