West Coast Late-Season RPI Report (May 7)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in Orange, past opponents in blue)


Big West 

Fullerton 14 (-1) - 30-14, 12-3 (1-0 vs. USC, 3-0 at Pacific) 
Long Beach 51 (+5) - 23-21, 11-4 (0-1 vs. UCLA, 2-0 vs. LMU H/A/H - GAME 3 MON) 
Irvine 61 (+6) - 27-17, 11-7 (1-0 at SDSU, 3-0 vs. UCSB) 
Cal Poly 77 (-11) - 27-19, 10-8 (1-0 vs. P'dine, 1-2 at UC Davis) 
Northridge 125 (-11) - 20-23, 7-8 (2-1 at Riverside)
UCSB 134 (-19) - 23-22, 9-9 (0-3 at Irvine)  
Riverside 168 (-19) - 16-26, 5-10 (1-1 at UNLV, 1-2 vs. Northridge)
UC Davis 197 (+2) - 18-25, 6-9 (0-1 at Fresno, 2-1 vs. Cal Poly)
Pacific 241 (-2) - 11-34, 1-14 (0-3 vs. Fullerton) 


IN (1) - Fullerton.  The Titans are a lock to be in a regional for the 21st straight season and have a good chance at being a regional host if they go 5-1 against UCSB and Riverside but have almost no chance of being a national seed.

BUBBLE (2) - Long Beach, Irvine.  The RPI needs report says Long Beach would need to go 10-1 the rest of the way to get their RPI down to 45 due to series with UC Davis and Pacific coming up. They probably need to go at least 5-1 in those series and 3-2 in their other games (LMU today, P'dine and the Fullerton series) to stay in the conversation for an at-large bid.  The RPI needs report says Irvine would need to go 11-1 the rest of the way to get their RPI down to 45 due to series with Northridge, Bakersfield and UC Davis coming up.  They also have three midweek games left with USD and UCLA to help boost their RPI. They probably need to go 2-1 in their midweek games and 7-2 in their weekend series to stay under consideration for an at-large.  One of these teams will probably make it into the regional field and end up being a 3 seed at UCLA.  If both make the field, the other one would end up being a 3 seed at Stanford/Arizona.

OUT (6) - Cal Poly, Northridge, UCSB, Riverside, UC Davis, Pacific.

Cal Poly played their way out of any at-large consideration with a series loss at UC Davis, their fourth straight series loss on the road.


Pac 11

UCLA 3 (+1) - 31-13, 12-9 (1-0 at Long Beach, 2-1 vs. Purdue)  
Oregon 5 (+11) - 34-14, 16-8 (2-0 at Gonzaga,  2-1 at Arizona)
Stanford 15 (+7) - 29-14, 11-10 (0-1 at San Jose, 1-2 at OSU)
Arizona 20 (-1) - 30-15, 13-8 (1-2 vs. Oregon)
OSU 28 (+1) - 30-15, 11-10 (2-1 vs. Stanford)
ASU 30 (-5) - 29-17, 14-10 - INELIGIBLE  (3-0 vs. Utah)  
Washington 42 (+7) - 26-18, 11-10 (3-0 at USC)
USC 73 (-20) - 22-21, 7-13 (0-1 at Fullerton, 0-3 vs. Washington) 
Cal 75 (-1) - 25-19, 9-12 (2-1 at WSU)
WSU 82 (-9) - 23-20, 9-11 (1-2 vs. Cal)
Utah 203 (-8 ) - 12-33, 5-16 (0-3 vs. ASU)


IN (5) - UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, OSU.  UCLA and Oregon have the inside track on national seeds - UCLA due to their RPI and Oregon due to series wins AT UCLA, Stanford and Arizona.  Stanford and Arizona are probably battling for the fourth western regional host with the other likely to end up as a 2 seed at Fullerton.  Arizona swept Stanford in Tucson but Stanford has an easy finishing stretch (WSU, at Utah, Cal) to shoot up in the conf standings.  OSU is a solid 2 seed wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

BUBBLE (1) - Washington.  The Huskies have played their way into at-large consideration by going 5-1 in their last two Pac 11 series (at Utah and USC).  If they can go 4-5 in their last three series (UCLA, at ASU, WSU) they will probably get into a regional for the first time in eight years since Tim Lincecum pitched there.  They would be a 3 seed wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

OUT (5) - ASU, USC, Cal, WSU, Utah.  USC won home series with Cal and OSU within the last month but sweeps at ASU and at home this weekend to UW were the nail in the coffin.  Cal has a brutal finishing stretch vs. Arizona and UCLA and at Stanford and could play their way into the field by winning at least two of those series but it isn't likely.  WSU lost home series to ASU and Cal the last two weeks to end any at-large hopes they had.


WCC

San Diego 25 (+1) - 36-11, 13-5 (3-0 at BYU)
Gonzaga 37 (-7) - 29-17, 9-9 (0-2 vs. Oregon, 2-1 at St. Mary's)
P'dine 38 (-10) - 26-18, 9-6 (0-1 at Cal Poly, 2-1 vs. USF)
St. Mary's 85 (+5) - 22-23, 6-12 (0-1 at Nevada, 1-2 vs. Gonzaga)
Portland 87 (-1) - 21-16, 10-8 (DNP)
LMU 98 (-30) - 21-20, 9-6 (0-2 vs. Long Beach - H/A/H - 3RD GAME MON) 
USF 121 (+6) - 22-28, 9-9 (1-0 at Sac State, 1-2 at P'dine)
Santa Clara 131 (-1) - 20-20, 3-12 (2-0 at Seattle)
BYU 136 (-8 ) - 18-21, 7-8 (0-1 at Utah Valley, 0-3 vs. San Diego)


IN (1) - San Diego.  The Toreros are looking like they will be a 2 seed at UCLA unless the roof caves in their last two series (LMU, at P'dine).

BUBBLE (2) - Gonzaga, P'dine.  Gonzaga still has four non-conf games left to boost their RPI (series vs. ASU, midweek with WSU) and series vs. Portland and at BYU.  They need to improve their conf record to stay safely in the field.  They are looking like a 3 seed at Oregon.  P'dine's conf record is better and they probably need to win two of three conf series (BYU, at LMU, USD) to feel safe.  They are looking like they will be a 3 seed at Fullerton.

OUT (6) - St. Mary's, Portland, LMU, USF, Santa Clara, BYU.  The only team with even faint hopes would be Portland, who has a series left with Gonzaga and three games left with Oregon/OSU to boost their RPI.


WAC

New Mexico State 27 (-6) - 30-17, 7-5 (0-1 vs. Texas Tech, 0-3 at Hawaii)
Hawaii 65 (+28 ) - 28-18, 8-4 (3-0 vs. NMSU)
Nevada 80 (-16) - 26-20, 7-5 (1-0 vs. St. Mary's, 1-2 at Seattle)
La. Tech 109 (+15) - 23-22, 6-9 (3-0 vs. San Jose State)
Sac State 114 (-18 ) - 25-23, 8-7 (0-1 vs. USF, 1-2 at Fresno State)
Fresno State 132 (+2) - 21-23, 4-8 (1-0 vs. UC Davis, 2-1 vs. Sac State)
San Jose State 187 (-12) - 21-20, 5-7 (1-0 vs. Stanford, 0-3 at La. Tech)

IN (1) - NMSU.  The Aggies have lost six in a row and have the two worst teams in the WAC coming up (Fresno, San Jose) so they should be able to right the ship.  They are likely to be a 3 seed at Arizona (if they host) or at a regional in Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M or Rice).

BUBBLE (1) - Hawaii.  They would probably need to go 5-1 in their last two series (at Sac State, vs. Nevada) and play well in the WAC tournament to have any shot at an at-large bid.

OUT (5) - Nevada, La Tech, Sac State, Fresno, San Jose.  One of these teams will miss out on the WAC tournament and the other four are hoping the roulette wheel lands on their number in the WAC tournament to win the automatic bid.


MWC

TCU 33 (+8 ) - 29-16, 13-5 (1-0 vs. Oklahoma, 2-1 vs. New Mexico)
New Mexico 88 (-3) - 27-21, 13-5 (1-2 at TCU)
San Diego State 158 (+6) - 22-27, 11-10 (0-1 vs. Irvine, 2-1 vs. UNLV)
UNLV 224 (-13) - 22-27, 6-15 (1-1 vs. Riverside, 1-2 at SDSU)
Air Force 258 (+2) - 11-33, 5-13 (1-3 at Kansas Tournament)


IN (1) - TCU.  The Horned Frogs fought thru a ton of injuries but are getting healthy and playing well at the right time.  They are looking like a 2 or 3 seed, depending on how they finish, in a regional in Texas (Baylor, Rice or Texas A&M).

OUT (4) - New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Air Force.  New Mexico buried themselves by starting 2-9 and will be a dangerous team for TCU in the MWC tournament (teams split series, each winning at home).  The other three teams look like they will just be opponents for TCU and UNM to play in the MWC tournament.


Independents/Others

Utah Valley 60 (+17) - 35-11, 20-0 (1-0 vs. BYU, 4-0 at Houston Baptist)
Bakersfield 167 (-5) - 19-23 (0-3 at NC State)
Seattle 191 (-13) - 17-20 (0-2 vs. Santa Clara, 2-1 vs. Nevada)


BUBBLE (1) - Utah Valley.  They have their RPI down to 60 but will be playing some RPI anchors the rest of the way.  They have won 28 in a row and could end up winning 40 in a row to finish 47-11 and if they do, the NCAA selection committee will have an interesting decision on their hands.

OUT (2) - Bakersfield, Seattle.