Showing posts with label RPI Report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RPI Report. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

NCAA Regional Seed Analysis

By Samuel Chi

So just how much of a role did RPI play in the selection and seeding of the NCAA baseball tournament's 64 teams?

In a word: huge.

We have put together all the teams that are in the NCAA tournament field as well as teams ranked in the top 50 in the RPI but were left out, and the picture that emerged is that, with one or two exceptions, the seedings were done almost entirely by RPI. The selections process was slightly less so, but still RPI had significant sway.

How else to explain a Miami team that by any measure wasn't really a top 16 team and deserving of a 1 seed and hosting its own regional? But its final RPI ranking of No. 12 trumped it all.

We broke down the seeding with helpful color-coding to make this chart easy to read. Judge for yourself on who got lucky and who got screwed in this year's postseason field.

Keys
Boldface - automatic qualifiers
NE - not eligible (on NCAA probation)
NS - not selected

Rankings
RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), ISR (Boyd's World's Iterative Strength Ratings), BA (Baseball America), CB (Collegiate Baseball), PG (Perfect Game USA - not available), USA (USA Today Coaches Poll), BWA (NCBWA Writers Poll)

Sorted by seeds

Sorted by RPI


Note: If you're interested in having the sortable spreadsheet sent to you, contact media@bcsguru.com.

Monday, May 21, 2012

West Coast Late-Season RPI Report (May 21)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' opponents in blue)

Big West 

Fullerton 20 (-5) - 33-18, 15-6 (0-1 vs UCLA, 1-2 vs. Riverside) 
Long Beach 67 (-8 ) - 27-25, 14-7 (0-1 vs. P'dine, 2-1 vs. Pacific) 
Irvine 73 (-4) - 30-22, 12-9 (0-1 vs. USD, 2-1 vs. Bakersfield) 
Cal Poly 74 (+12) - 33-20, 13-8 (1-0 at Bakersfield, 3-0 vs. UCSB) 
Northridge 133 (-19) - 23-26, 10-11 (1-2 vs. UC Davis)
UCSB 138 (-12) - 24-27, 10-14 (0-3 at Cal Poly)  
Riverside 145 (+19) - 21-28, 9-12 (2-1 at Fullerton)
UC Davis 186 (+2) - 20-27, 8-10 (1-0 vs. Hawaii, 1-1 at San Jose, 2-1 at Northridge) 
Pacific 247 (+1) - 12-37, 2-16 (0-1 at Santa Clara, 1-2 at Long Beach)

IN (1) - Fullerton.  The Titans are a lock to be in a regional for the 21st straight season and have a chance at being a regional host if they win the first two games at Long Beach before the final game of the series (the hosting sites are announced before that game will be played) is played.  If they split the first two games at Long Beach they will probably be a 2 seed at a regional hosted by a Pac 11 team.

BUBBLE (1) - Long Beach.  Long Beach will win the conference by winning the series with Fullerton but will not be an at-large if they lose the series to Fullerton.

OUT (7) - Irvine, Cal Poly, Northridge, UCSB, Riverside, UC Davis, Pacific.  Cal Poly could finish in a three-way for the Big West title at 16-8 but cannot win the autobid and has too low of an RPI to be considered for an at-large.


Pac 11

UCLA 3 (NC) - 38-14, 17-10 (1-0 at Fullerton, 2-1 at Cal)  
Oregon 5 (NC) - 41-14, 19-8 (1-0 vs. USC, 3-0 vs. Seattle)
Stanford 13 (-1) - 36-15, 17-10 (1-0 vs. USF, 3-0 at Utah)
ASU 17 (+4) - 35-18, 17-10 - INELIGIBLE (0-1 vs. Arizona, 3-0 vs. UW)  
Arizona 18 (-1) - 36-16, 18-9 (1-0 at ASU, 2-1 at USC)
OSU 38 (-4) - 35-18, 15-12 (1-0 vs. Portland, 2-1 at WSU)
Washington 55 (-3) - 27-24, 11-16 (1-0 vs. Portland, 0-3 at ASU)
Cal 66 (+9) - 27-24, 10-17 (1-0 vs. WSU, 1-2 vs. UCLA)
WSU 80 (+1) - 26-26, 11-16 (0-1 at Cal, 1-0 vs. USC, 1-2 vs. OSU)
USC 86 (-8 ) - 23-27, 8-19 (0-1 at Oregon, 0-1 at WSU, 1-2 vs. Arizona)
Utah 190 (+13) - 14-38, 6-21 (1-0 at Utah Valley, 0-3 vs. Stanford)

IN (5) - UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, OSU.  UCLA and Oregon have the inside track on national seeds - UCLA due to their RPI and Oregon due to series wins AT UCLA, Stanford and Arizona that have them in first place.  Stanford is a lock to host by winning at least one of the first two games vs. Cal.  Fullerton and Arizona are probably battling for the last western regional host site with the other likely to end up as a 2 seed.  OSU is going to be a 2 or 3 seed, depending on how they finish, wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

BUBBLE (1) - Washington.  The Huskies played their way into at-large consideration by going 5-1 in their two previous Pac 11 series before being swept at home by UCLA and at ASU.  They probably need to sweep WSU to get into a regional.

OUT (5) - ASU, USC, Cal, WSU, Utah.


WCC

San Diego 28 (+1) - 39-13, 14-7 (1-0 at Irvine)
P'dine 33 (NC) - 32-20, 14-7 (1-0 at Long Beach, 2-1 at LMU) 
Gonzaga 45 (+6) - 32-22, 12-9 (3-0 vs. Portland)
LMU 101 (-9) - 24-26, 12-9 (0-1 at SDSU, 1-2 at Pepperdine) 
St. Mary's 107 (-3) - 23-26, 7-14 (DNP)
USF 118 (+1) - 26-29, 12-9 (0-1 at Stanford)
Portland 123 (-26) - 23-23, 12-12 (0-1 at OSU, 0-1 at Washington, 0-3 at Gonzaga)
BYU 149 (-4) - 21-25, 9-12 (2-1 vs. Santa Clara)
Santa Clara 172 (-15) - 22-25, 4-17 (1-0 at Pacific, 1-2 at BYU)

IN (2) - San Diego, P'dine.  The Toreros and Waves play for the WCC title this weekend at P'dine.  The winner will probably be a 2 seed and the loser will probably be a 3 seed at regionals in CA (UCLA, Stanford or Fullerton if the Titans host).

BUBBLE (1) - Gonzaga, LMU.  Gonzaga played their way back onto the good side of the bubble with a sweep last weekend and needs to go at least 2-2 this week (at WSU, at BYU) to stay there.

OUT (6) - LMU, St. Mary's, Portland, LMU, USF, Santa Clara, BYU.


WAC

New Mexico State 26 (+4) - 35-20, 11-7 (0-1 at UNM, 1-0 at Bakersfield, 3-0 at San Jose)
Nevada 65 (+3) - 31-22, 11-7 (1-2 at Hawaii)
Hawaii 70 (+3) - 30-23, 10-8 (0-1 at UC Davis, 2-1 vs. Nevada)
Fresno State 108 (+13) - 25-26, 8-10 (2-1 vs. La Tech)
Sac State 111 (-23) - 27-26, 11-7 (0-3 vs. UNLV)
La. Tech 119 (-10) - 24-25, 6-9 (0-1 at Arkansas, 1-2 at Fresno)
San Jose State 208 (-14) - 22-27, 5-13 (1-1 vs. UC Davis, 0-3 vs. NMSU)

IN - None.  The only guarantee is the winner of the conf tournament getting the automatic bid.

BUBBLE (1) - NMSU.  The Aggies lost nine of ten before winning four straight to go from being a lock to being on the bubble.  Their RPI is still keeping them in the at-large conversation and they will probably be in a regional unless they go 0-2-BBQ in the WAC tournament.  If they are in a regional they are likely to be a 3 seed at Arizona (if they host) or at a regional in Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M or Rice).

OUT (6) - Nevada, Hawaii, Sac State, La Tech, Fresno, San Jose.  San Jose will miss out on the WAC tournament and the other five are hoping the roulette wheel lands on their number in the WAC tournament to win the automatic bid.


MWC

TCU 30 (+2) - 35-17, 18-6 (1-0 at Oklahoma, 2-1 vs. SDSU)
New Mexico 62 (+18 ) - 33-22, 18-6 (1-0 vs. NMSU, 3-0 vs. Air Force)
San Diego State 140 (+22) - 24-32, 12-12 (1-0 vs. LMU, 1-2 at TCU)
UNLV 209 (+14) - 26-29, 7-17 (3-0 at Sac State)
Air Force 258 (+2) - 12-39, 5-19 (1-0 at Northern Colorado, 0-3 at New Mexico)

IN (1) - TCU.  The Horned Frogs fought thru a ton of injuries but are getting healthy and playing well at the right time.  They are looking like a 2 or 3 seed, depending on how they finish, in a regional in Texas (Baylor, Rice or Texas A&M).

BUBBLE (1) - New Mexico.  The Lobos nearly buried themselves by starting 2-9 but will be an interesting study for the selection committee if they lose in the MWC tournament final.

OUT (3) - SDSU, UNLV, Air Force.


Independents/Others

Utah Valley 68 (-2) - 43-12, 28-0 (0-1 vs. Utah, 4-0 vs. Northern Colorado)
Bakersfield 175 (-16) - 22-28 (0-1 vs. NMSU, 1-2 at Irvine)
Seattle 202 (-4) - 18-22 (0-3 at Oregon)

BUBBLE (1) - Utah Valley.  They had their 32 game winning streak snapped by Utah and could end finish 46-12 and if they do, the NCAA selection committee will have an interesting decision on their hands.

OUT (2) - Bakersfield, Seattle.

Monday, May 14, 2012

West Coast Late-Season RPI Report (May 14)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in Orange, past opponents in blue)

Big West 

Cal State Fullerton 15 (-1) - 32-15, 14-4 (2-1 at UCSB) 
Long Beach 59 (-8 ) - 25-23, 12-6 (1-0 vs. LMU, 1-2 at UC Davis) 
Irvine 69 (-8 ) - 28-20, 12-9 (0-1 at USD, 1-2 at Northridge) 
Cal Poly 86 (-9) - 29-20, 10-8 (2-1 vs. Bakersfield) 
Northridge 114 (+11) - 22-24, 9-9 (2-1 vs. Irvine)
UCSB 126 (+8 ) - 24-24, 10-11 (1-2 vs. Fullerton)  
Riverside 164 (+4) - 19-27, 7-11 (1-0 vs. LMU, 2-1 at Pacific)
UC Davis 188 (+9) - 20-27, 8-10 (0-1 at Nevada, 2-1 vs. Long Beach)
Pacific 248 (-7) - 12-37, 2-16 (0-1 vs. USF, 1-2 vs. Riverside) 

IN (1) - Fullerton.  The Titans are a lock to be in a regional for the 21st straight season and have a good chance at being a regional host if they go 5-1 in their six games before the final game of the Long Beach series (the hosting sites are announced before that game will be played) but have almost no chance of being a national seed.

BUBBLE (1) - Long Beach.  Long Beach isn't listed in the RPI needs report with having a chance to get their RPI to 45 or better by winning their last seven games with three of them being played vs. RPI anchor Pacific.  The series loss at Davis pretty much assured Long Beach of only getting into the post-season by winning the automatic bid.  If Long Beach makes the field, they would end up being a 3 seed, probably at UCLA (if Fullerton hosts a regional) or Stanford.

OUT (7) - Irvine, Cal Poly, Northridge, UCSB, Riverside, UC Davis, Pacific.

Irvine probably needed to go at least 9-3 in their final twelve games going into the week to get into a regional.  After a loss at USD and three days in the Valley at Northridge and suffering a series loss, they will miss the post-season for the first time since 2005.


Pac 11

UCLA 3 (NC) - 35-13, 15-9 (1-0 at P'dine, 3-0 at Washington)  
Oregon 5 (NC) - 37-14, 18-8 (1-0 vs. OSU, 2-0 vs. USC - 3rd game Mon)
Stanford 12 (+3) - 32-15, 14-10 (0-1 at San Jose, 3-0 vs. WSU)
Arizona 17 (+3) - 33-15, 16-8 (3-0 at Cal)
ASU 21 (+9) - 32-17, 14-10 - INELIGIBLE FOR POST-SEASON (3-0 at Gonzaga)
OSU 34 (-6) - 32-17, 13-11 (0-1 at Oregon, 2-1 at Utah)
Washington 52 (-10) - 26-21, 11-13 (0-3 vs. UCLA)
Cal 75 (NC) - 25-22, 9-15 (0-3 vs. Arizona)
USC 78 (-5) - 22-23, 7-15 (0-2 at Oregon -3rd game Mon)
WSU 81 (+1) - 24-23, 9-14 (1-0 vs. Portland, 0-3 at Stanford)
Utah 203 (NC) - 13-35, 6-18 (1-2 vs. OSU)

IN (5) - UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, OSU.  UCLA and Oregon have the inside track on national seeds - UCLA due to their RPI and Oregon due to series wins AT UCLA, Stanford and Arizona that have them in first place.  Fullerton, Stanford and Arizona are probably battling for two western regional host sites with the other likely to end up as a 2 seed at the one that is sent packing.  Arizona swept Stanford in Tucson but Stanford has an easy finishing stretch (at Utah, Cal) to shoot up in the conf standings.  OSU is going to be a 2 or 3 seed, depending on how they finish, wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

BUBBLE (1) - Washington.  The Huskies played their way into at-large consideration by going 5-1 in their two previous Pac 11 series before being swept at home by UCLA.  They probably need to go 4-2 in their last two series (at ASU, WSU) to get their conf record to .500 in order to get into a regional for the first time in eight years since Tim Lincecum pitched there.  They would be a 3 seed wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

OUT (5) - ASU, USC, Cal, WSU, Utah.


WCC

San Diego 29 (-4) - 38-13, 14-7 (1-0 vs. Irvine, 1-2 vs. LMU)
P'dine 33 (+5) - 29-19, 12-6 (0-1 vs. UCLA, 3-0 vs. BYU)
Gonzaga 51 (-14) - 29-22, 9-9 (0-3 vs. ASU)
LMU 92 (+6) - 23-23, 11-7 (0-1 at Long Beach, 0-1 at Riverside, 2-1 at USD) 
Portland 97 (-10) - 23-18, 12-9 (0-1 at WSU, 2-1 vs. St. Mary's)
St. Mary's 104 (-19) - 23-26, 7-14 (0-1 at Sac State, 1-2 at Portland)
USF 119 (+2) - 26-28, 12-9 (1-0 at Pacific, 3-0 vs. Santa Clara)
BYU 145 (-9) - 19-24, 7-11 (1-0 vs. Southern Utah, 0-3 at P'dine)
Santa Clara 157 (-26) - 20-23, 3-15 (0-3 at USF)

IN (2) - San Diego, P'dine.  The Toreros are looking like they will be a 2 seed at UCLA unless the roof caves in their last two series (LMU, at P'dine).  It almost did before they won the final game of the LMU series.  P'dine has won five straight conf series to move into the pretty safe category as long as they don't get run off the field in their last two series (at LMU, USD) to feel safe.  They are looking like they will be a 3 seed at Fullerton (if they host a regional) or UCLA.

BUBBLE (2) - Gonzaga, LMU.   Gonzaga looked like a lock a few weeks ago but they have lost 11 of their last 14 games and would probably be on the outside looking in if the selection committee was picking teams today.  They probably need to go at least 5-2 the next two weeks to play their way back into consideration.  LMU is listed here because they are still in the race to win the WCC title (no shot at an at-large) after winning the series at USD over the weekend.  They have a must win series at home with P'dine this weekend.  If they pulled off the miracle and finished ahead of USD and P'dine they would be looking at a 4 seed at UCLA or Fullerton.

OUT (5) - St. Mary's, Portland, USF, Santa Clara, BYU.


WAC

New Mexico State 30 (-3) - 31-19, 8-7 (1-2 vs. Fresno State)
Hawaii 73 (-8 ) - 28-12, 8-7 (0-3 at Sac State)
Nevada 68 (+12) - 30-20, 10-5 (1-0 vs. UC Davis, 3-0 vs. San Jose State)
La. Tech 109 (NC) - 23-22, 6-9 (DNP)
Sac State 88 (+26) - 27-23, 11-7 (1-0 vs. St. Mary's, 3-0 vs. Hawaii)
Fresno State 121 (+11) - 23-24, 6-9 (2-1 at NMSU)
San Jose State 194 (-7) - 21-23, 5-10 (0-3 at Nevada)

IN - None.  The only guarantee is the winner of the conf tournament getting the automatic bid.

BUBBLE (1) - NMSU.  The Aggies have lost eight of nine to go from being a lock to being on the bubble.  They have five road games to finish up the regular season (at New Mexico, at Bakersfield, at San Jose).  Their RPI is still keeping them in the at-large conversation despite falling to third in the conf standings.  If they are in a regional they are likely to be a 3 seed at Arizona (if they host) or at a regional in Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M or Rice).

OUT (6) - Nevada, Hawaii, Sac State, La Tech, Fresno, San Jose.  One of these teams will miss out on the WAC tournament and the other five are hoping the roulette wheel lands on their number in the WAC tournament to win the automatic bid.


MWC

TCU 32 (+1) - 32-16, 16-5 (3-0 at Air Force)
New Mexico 80 (+8 ) - 29-22, 15-6 (2-1 at UNLV)
San Diego State 162 (-4) - 22-30, 11-10 (0-3 at Texas A&M)
UNLV 225 (-1) - 23-29, 7-17 (1-2 vs. New Mexico)
Air Force 260 (-2) - 11-36, 5-16 (0-3 vs. TCU)

IN (1) - TCU.  The Horned Frogs fought thru a ton of injuries but are getting healthy and playing well at the right time.  They are looking like a 2 or 3 seed, depending on how they finish, in a regional in Texas (Baylor, Rice or Texas A&M).

OUT (4) - New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Air Force.  New Mexico buried themselves by starting 2-9 and will be a dangerous team for TCU in the MWC tournament (teams split series, each winning at home).  The other three teams look like they will just be opponents for TCU and UNM to play in the MWC tournament.


Independents/Others

Utah Valley 66 (-6) - 39-11, 24-0 (4-0 at New York Tech)
Bakersfield 159 (+8 ) - 21-25 (1-2 at Cal Poly)
Seattle 198 (-7) - 18-22 (1-2 at Ohio State)

BUBBLE (1) - Utah Valley.  Their RPI went up from 60 to 66 after playing an RPI anchor last week.  They have won 32 in a row and could end up winning 40 in a row to finish 47-11 and if they do, the NCAA selection committee will have an interesting decision on their hands.

OUT (2) - Bakersfield, Seattle.

Monday, May 7, 2012

West Coast Late-Season RPI Report (May 7)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in Orange, past opponents in blue)


Big West 

Fullerton 14 (-1) - 30-14, 12-3 (1-0 vs. USC, 3-0 at Pacific) 
Long Beach 51 (+5) - 23-21, 11-4 (0-1 vs. UCLA, 2-0 vs. LMU H/A/H - GAME 3 MON) 
Irvine 61 (+6) - 27-17, 11-7 (1-0 at SDSU, 3-0 vs. UCSB) 
Cal Poly 77 (-11) - 27-19, 10-8 (1-0 vs. P'dine, 1-2 at UC Davis) 
Northridge 125 (-11) - 20-23, 7-8 (2-1 at Riverside)
UCSB 134 (-19) - 23-22, 9-9 (0-3 at Irvine)  
Riverside 168 (-19) - 16-26, 5-10 (1-1 at UNLV, 1-2 vs. Northridge)
UC Davis 197 (+2) - 18-25, 6-9 (0-1 at Fresno, 2-1 vs. Cal Poly)
Pacific 241 (-2) - 11-34, 1-14 (0-3 vs. Fullerton) 


IN (1) - Fullerton.  The Titans are a lock to be in a regional for the 21st straight season and have a good chance at being a regional host if they go 5-1 against UCSB and Riverside but have almost no chance of being a national seed.

BUBBLE (2) - Long Beach, Irvine.  The RPI needs report says Long Beach would need to go 10-1 the rest of the way to get their RPI down to 45 due to series with UC Davis and Pacific coming up. They probably need to go at least 5-1 in those series and 3-2 in their other games (LMU today, P'dine and the Fullerton series) to stay in the conversation for an at-large bid.  The RPI needs report says Irvine would need to go 11-1 the rest of the way to get their RPI down to 45 due to series with Northridge, Bakersfield and UC Davis coming up.  They also have three midweek games left with USD and UCLA to help boost their RPI. They probably need to go 2-1 in their midweek games and 7-2 in their weekend series to stay under consideration for an at-large.  One of these teams will probably make it into the regional field and end up being a 3 seed at UCLA.  If both make the field, the other one would end up being a 3 seed at Stanford/Arizona.

OUT (6) - Cal Poly, Northridge, UCSB, Riverside, UC Davis, Pacific.

Cal Poly played their way out of any at-large consideration with a series loss at UC Davis, their fourth straight series loss on the road.


Pac 11

UCLA 3 (+1) - 31-13, 12-9 (1-0 at Long Beach, 2-1 vs. Purdue)  
Oregon 5 (+11) - 34-14, 16-8 (2-0 at Gonzaga,  2-1 at Arizona)
Stanford 15 (+7) - 29-14, 11-10 (0-1 at San Jose, 1-2 at OSU)
Arizona 20 (-1) - 30-15, 13-8 (1-2 vs. Oregon)
OSU 28 (+1) - 30-15, 11-10 (2-1 vs. Stanford)
ASU 30 (-5) - 29-17, 14-10 - INELIGIBLE  (3-0 vs. Utah)  
Washington 42 (+7) - 26-18, 11-10 (3-0 at USC)
USC 73 (-20) - 22-21, 7-13 (0-1 at Fullerton, 0-3 vs. Washington) 
Cal 75 (-1) - 25-19, 9-12 (2-1 at WSU)
WSU 82 (-9) - 23-20, 9-11 (1-2 vs. Cal)
Utah 203 (-8 ) - 12-33, 5-16 (0-3 vs. ASU)


IN (5) - UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, OSU.  UCLA and Oregon have the inside track on national seeds - UCLA due to their RPI and Oregon due to series wins AT UCLA, Stanford and Arizona.  Stanford and Arizona are probably battling for the fourth western regional host with the other likely to end up as a 2 seed at Fullerton.  Arizona swept Stanford in Tucson but Stanford has an easy finishing stretch (WSU, at Utah, Cal) to shoot up in the conf standings.  OSU is a solid 2 seed wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

BUBBLE (1) - Washington.  The Huskies have played their way into at-large consideration by going 5-1 in their last two Pac 11 series (at Utah and USC).  If they can go 4-5 in their last three series (UCLA, at ASU, WSU) they will probably get into a regional for the first time in eight years since Tim Lincecum pitched there.  They would be a 3 seed wherever the NCAA tells the plane to fly to.

OUT (5) - ASU, USC, Cal, WSU, Utah.  USC won home series with Cal and OSU within the last month but sweeps at ASU and at home this weekend to UW were the nail in the coffin.  Cal has a brutal finishing stretch vs. Arizona and UCLA and at Stanford and could play their way into the field by winning at least two of those series but it isn't likely.  WSU lost home series to ASU and Cal the last two weeks to end any at-large hopes they had.


WCC

San Diego 25 (+1) - 36-11, 13-5 (3-0 at BYU)
Gonzaga 37 (-7) - 29-17, 9-9 (0-2 vs. Oregon, 2-1 at St. Mary's)
P'dine 38 (-10) - 26-18, 9-6 (0-1 at Cal Poly, 2-1 vs. USF)
St. Mary's 85 (+5) - 22-23, 6-12 (0-1 at Nevada, 1-2 vs. Gonzaga)
Portland 87 (-1) - 21-16, 10-8 (DNP)
LMU 98 (-30) - 21-20, 9-6 (0-2 vs. Long Beach - H/A/H - 3RD GAME MON) 
USF 121 (+6) - 22-28, 9-9 (1-0 at Sac State, 1-2 at P'dine)
Santa Clara 131 (-1) - 20-20, 3-12 (2-0 at Seattle)
BYU 136 (-8 ) - 18-21, 7-8 (0-1 at Utah Valley, 0-3 vs. San Diego)


IN (1) - San Diego.  The Toreros are looking like they will be a 2 seed at UCLA unless the roof caves in their last two series (LMU, at P'dine).

BUBBLE (2) - Gonzaga, P'dine.  Gonzaga still has four non-conf games left to boost their RPI (series vs. ASU, midweek with WSU) and series vs. Portland and at BYU.  They need to improve their conf record to stay safely in the field.  They are looking like a 3 seed at Oregon.  P'dine's conf record is better and they probably need to win two of three conf series (BYU, at LMU, USD) to feel safe.  They are looking like they will be a 3 seed at Fullerton.

OUT (6) - St. Mary's, Portland, LMU, USF, Santa Clara, BYU.  The only team with even faint hopes would be Portland, who has a series left with Gonzaga and three games left with Oregon/OSU to boost their RPI.


WAC

New Mexico State 27 (-6) - 30-17, 7-5 (0-1 vs. Texas Tech, 0-3 at Hawaii)
Hawaii 65 (+28 ) - 28-18, 8-4 (3-0 vs. NMSU)
Nevada 80 (-16) - 26-20, 7-5 (1-0 vs. St. Mary's, 1-2 at Seattle)
La. Tech 109 (+15) - 23-22, 6-9 (3-0 vs. San Jose State)
Sac State 114 (-18 ) - 25-23, 8-7 (0-1 vs. USF, 1-2 at Fresno State)
Fresno State 132 (+2) - 21-23, 4-8 (1-0 vs. UC Davis, 2-1 vs. Sac State)
San Jose State 187 (-12) - 21-20, 5-7 (1-0 vs. Stanford, 0-3 at La. Tech)

IN (1) - NMSU.  The Aggies have lost six in a row and have the two worst teams in the WAC coming up (Fresno, San Jose) so they should be able to right the ship.  They are likely to be a 3 seed at Arizona (if they host) or at a regional in Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M or Rice).

BUBBLE (1) - Hawaii.  They would probably need to go 5-1 in their last two series (at Sac State, vs. Nevada) and play well in the WAC tournament to have any shot at an at-large bid.

OUT (5) - Nevada, La Tech, Sac State, Fresno, San Jose.  One of these teams will miss out on the WAC tournament and the other four are hoping the roulette wheel lands on their number in the WAC tournament to win the automatic bid.


MWC

TCU 33 (+8 ) - 29-16, 13-5 (1-0 vs. Oklahoma, 2-1 vs. New Mexico)
New Mexico 88 (-3) - 27-21, 13-5 (1-2 at TCU)
San Diego State 158 (+6) - 22-27, 11-10 (0-1 vs. Irvine, 2-1 vs. UNLV)
UNLV 224 (-13) - 22-27, 6-15 (1-1 vs. Riverside, 1-2 at SDSU)
Air Force 258 (+2) - 11-33, 5-13 (1-3 at Kansas Tournament)


IN (1) - TCU.  The Horned Frogs fought thru a ton of injuries but are getting healthy and playing well at the right time.  They are looking like a 2 or 3 seed, depending on how they finish, in a regional in Texas (Baylor, Rice or Texas A&M).

OUT (4) - New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV, Air Force.  New Mexico buried themselves by starting 2-9 and will be a dangerous team for TCU in the MWC tournament (teams split series, each winning at home).  The other three teams look like they will just be opponents for TCU and UNM to play in the MWC tournament.


Independents/Others

Utah Valley 60 (+17) - 35-11, 20-0 (1-0 vs. BYU, 4-0 at Houston Baptist)
Bakersfield 167 (-5) - 19-23 (0-3 at NC State)
Seattle 191 (-13) - 17-20 (0-2 vs. Santa Clara, 2-1 vs. Nevada)


BUBBLE (1) - Utah Valley.  They have their RPI down to 60 but will be playing some RPI anchors the rest of the way.  They have won 28 in a row and could end up winning 40 in a row to finish 47-11 and if they do, the NCAA selection committee will have an interesting decision on their hands.

OUT (2) - Bakersfield, Seattle.

Monday, April 30, 2012

West Coast Midseason RPI Report (April 30)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in orange, past opponents in blue)

Big West 
Fullerton 13 (-2) - 26-14, 9-3 (0-1 at LMU) 
Long Beach 56 (NC) - 21-20, 11-4 (1-0 at USC, 2-1 at Northridge)
Cal Poly 66 (+2) - 25-17, 9-6 (0-1 at Fresno, 3-0 vs. Pacific) 
Irvine 67 (+6) - 23-17, 8-7 (0-1 at UCLA, 3-0 vs. Riverside) 
Northridge 114 (+2) - 18-22, 5-7 (1-0 vs. Bakersfield, 1-2 vs. Long Beach)
UCSB 115 (-18 ) - 23-19, 9-6 (0-1 at St. Mary's, 2-1 vs. UC Davis)  
Riverside 147 (-16) - 14-23, 4-8 (0-1 at USD, 0-3 at Irvine)
UC Davis 199 (+3) - 16-23, 4-8 (1-0 at USF, 1-2 at UCSB)
Pacific 239 (-8 ) - 11-31, 1-11 (0-1 at Nevada, 0-3 at Cal Poly) 


Pac 11
UCLA 4 (+1) - 28-12, 12-9 (1-0 vs. Irvine, 1-2 vs. Stanford) 
Stanford 8 (+5) - 28-11, 10-8 (1-0 vs. BYU, 2-1 at UCLA)
Oregon 16 (+6) - 30-13, 14-7 (0-1 vs. Oregon State, 3-0 vs. Cal) 
Arizona 19 (NC) - 29-13, 12-6 (3-0 vs. East Tennessee State)
ASU 25 (+1) - 26-17, 11-10 - INELIGIBLE (2-1 at WSU)  
OSU 29 (-1) - 28-14, 9-9 (1-0 at Oregon, 1-2 at USC) 
Washington 49 (-7) - 23-18, 8-10 (1-0 at Portland, 2-1 at Utah)
USC 53 (-3) - 22-17, 7-10 (0-1 vs. Long Beach, 2-1 vs. OSU) 
WSU 73 (+3) - 22-18, 8-9 (1-0 at Seattle, 1-2 vs. ASU)
Cal 74 (-9) - 23-18, 7-11 (0-3 at Oregon)
Utah 195 (+2) - 12-30, 5-13 (1-0 vs. Southern Utah, 1-2 vs. Washington)


WCC
San Diego 26 (+1) - 33-11, 10-5 (1-0 vs. Riverside, 1-2 at Portland)
P'dine 28 (+1) - 24-16, 7-5 (DNP) 
Gonzaga 30 (-5) - 27-14, 7-8 (1-2 vs. LMU) 
LMU 68 (+28 ) - 21-18, 9-6 (1-0 vs. Fullerton, 2-1 at Gonzaga)
Portland 86 (+18) - 21-16, 10-8 (0-1 vs. Washington, 2-1 vs. San Diego)
St. Mary's 90 (+3) - 21-20, 5-10 (1-0 vs. UCSB, 2-1 at Santa Clara) 
USF 127 (-12) - 20-26, 8-7 (0-1 vs. UC Davis, 2-1 vs. BYU) 
BYU 128 (-15) - 18-17, 7-5 (0-1 at Stanford,1-2 at USF) 
Santa Clara 130 (-25) - 20-20, 3-12 (1-2 vs. St. Mary's) 


WAC
New Mexico State 21 (NC) - 30-13, 7-2 (at Baylor)
Nevada 64 (-3) - 24-18, 7-5 (1-0 vs. Pacific, 2-1 vs. Fresno State)
Hawaii 93 (-8 ) - 25-18, 5-4 (1-0 at Grambling, 1-2 at La. Tech)
Sac State 96 (+7) - 24-20, 7-5 (2-1 at San Jose State) 
La. Tech 124 (+9) - 20-22, 3-9 (1-0 vs. Ark-Little Rock, 2-1 vs. Hawaii)
Fresno State 134 (+2) - 18-22, 2-7 (1-0 vs. Cal Poly, 1-2 at Nevada) 
San Jose State 175 (-3) - 20-17, 5-4 (vs. Sac State)


MWC
TCU 41 (NC) - 26-15, 11-4 (0-1 vs. Texas A&M, 3-0 vs. Manhattan)
New Mexico 85 (+9) - 26-19, 12-3 (1-1 vs. Texas Tech, 3-0 vs. UNLV) 
San Diego State 164 (-25) - 20-25, 9-9 (1-2 at Air Force)
UNLV 211 (+6) - 20-24, 5-13 (0-3 at New Mexico) 
Air Force 260 (+4) - 11-30, 5-13 (1-1 vs. Northern Colorado (H/A), 2-1 vs. SDSU)


Independents/Others
Utah Valley 77 (+23) - 30-11, 16-0 (4-0 vs. New Jersey Tech)
Bakersfield 162 (-7) - 19-20 (0-1 at Northridge, 1-1 at Nebraska)
Seattle 178 (-8 ) - 15-16 (1-0 vs. Washington State)

Monday, April 23, 2012

West Coast Midseason RPI Report (April 23)


By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in orange, past opponents in blue)


Big West 
Fullerton 11 (NC) - 26-13, 9-3 (1-0 vs. P'dine, 2-1 Cal Poly)
Long Beach 56 (+9) - 18-19, 9-3 (0-1 at LMU, 2-1 vs. Irvine)
Cal Poly 68 (+2) - 22-16, 6-6 (0-1 vs. Fresno, 1-2 at Fullerton) 
Irvine 73 (-4) - 20-16, 5-7 (1-0 vs. SDSU, 1-2 vs. Long Beach) 
UCSB 97 (+23) - 21-17, 7-5 (1-0 at USC, 3-0 at Pacific) 
Northridge 116 (NC) - 16-20, 4-5 (0-1 at UCLA) 
Riverside 131 (-9) - 14-19, 4-5 (2-0 vs. UNLV, 2-1 vs. UC Davis)
UC Davis 202 (-24) - 14-21, 3-6 (0-1 vs. Sac State, 1-2 vs. Riverside)
Pacific 231 (-22) - 11-27, 1-8 (0-2 vs. UCSB)
  
Pac 11
UCLA 5 (-2) - 26-10, 11-7 (1-0 vs. Northridge, 1-2 at OSU) 
Stanford 13 (+2) - 25-10, 8-7 (0-1 vs. San Jose, 3-0 vs. ASU)
Arizona 19 (NC) - 26-13, 12-6 (0-1 at ASU, 2-1 at Washington)
Oregon 22 (-10) - 27-12, 11-7 (1-0 vs. Ark.-Pine Bluff, 1-0 vs. Portland, 1-2 vs. WSU) 
ASU 26 (+3) - 24-16, 9-9 - INELIGIBLE (1-0 vs. Arizona, 0-3 at Stanford)  
OSU 28 (+14) - 26-12, 8-7 (1-0 at Portland, 2-1 vs. UCLA) 
Washington 42 (-3) - 20-17, 6-9 (1-0 vs. Seattle, 1-2 vs. Arizona)
USC 50 (-2) - 20-15, 5-9 (1-0 at Bakersfield, 0-1 vs. UCSB) 
Cal 65 (+1) - 23-15, 7-8 (1-0 vs. Santa Clara, 3-0 vs. Utah)
WSU 76 (+1) - 20-16, 7-7 (0-1 at Gonzaga, 2-1 at Oregon)
Utah 197 (-6) - 10-28, 5-13 (1-0 at BYU, 0-3 at Cal)
  
WCC
Gonzaga 25 (-11) - 26-12, 6-6 (1-0 vs. WSU, 0-3 at USF) 
San Diego 27 (-2) - 31-9, 9-3 (2-1 vs. St. Mary's)
P'dine 29 (-1) - 24-16, 7-5 (0-1 at Fullerton, 2-1 at Santa Clara) 
St. Mary's 93 (+21) - 18-19, 3-9 (1-2 at USD) 
LMU 96 (+19) - 18-17, 7-5 (1-0 vs. Long Beach, 2-1 vs. Portland)
Portland 104 (-29) - 19-14, 8-7 (0-1 vs. OSU, 0-1 vs. Oregon, 1-2 at LMU)
Santa Clara 105 (-22) - 19-18, 2-10 (0-1 at Cal, 1-2 vs. P'dine) 
BYU 113 (-27) - 17-14, 6-3 (0-1 vs. Utah) 
USF 115 (+30) - 18-24, 6-6 (0-2 at Oregon, 3-0 vs. Gonzaga) 
  
WAC
New Mexico State 21 (NC) - 30-11, 7-2 (0-1 at Sac State, 3-0 vs. La Tech)
Nevada 61 (+6) - 21-17, 5-4 (1-0 vs. USF, 1-2 at Sac State)
Hawaii 85 (+4) - 23-16, 4-2 (2-1 at San Jose)
Sac State 103 (+34) - 22-19, 5-4 (1-0 at UC Davis, 2-1 vs. Nevada) 
La. Tech 135 (-2) - 17-21, 1-8 (0-3 vs. NMSU)
Fresno State 136 (+14) - 16-20, 1-5 (1-0 at Cal Poly, 0-1 vs. Bakersfield) 
San Jose State 172 (+24) - 19-15, 4-2 (1-0 at Stanford, 1-2 vs. Hawaii)
  
MWC
TCU 41 (+2) - 23-14, 11-4 (1-0 vs. UL Monroe, 2-1 at SDSU)
New Mexico 94 (+19) - 22-18, 9-3 (2-0 at Texas Tech, 3-0 vs. Florida Gulf Coast) 
San Diego State 139 (+10) - 19-23, 8-7 (0-1 at Irvine, 1-2 vs. TCU)
UNLV 217 (-12) - 20-21, 5-10 (0-2 at Riverside, 3-0 vs. Air Force) 
Air Force 264 (-5) - 8-28, 3-12 (0-3 at UNLV)

Independents/Others
Bakersfield 155 (-1) - 18-18 (0-1 vs. USC, 1-0 at Fresno)
Utah Valley 100 (+59) - 26-11, 12-0 (4-0 vs. UT Pan American)
Seattle 170 (-8) - 15-16 (0-1 at Washington)

Monday, April 16, 2012

West Coast Midseason RPI Report (April 16)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in orange, past opponents in blue)


Big West
Fullerton 11 (+5) - 23-12, 7-2 (0-1 at UCLA, 2-1 at Irvine)
Long Beach 65 (+14) - 16-17, 7-2 (1-0 at SDSU, 3-0 vs. UCSB)
Irvine 69 (-3) - 18-14, 4-5 (1-2 vs. Fullerton)
Cal Poly 70 (-28 ) - 21-13, 5-4 (0-1 at UCSB, 1-2 at Northridge)
Northridge 116 (+19) - 16-19, 4-5 (1-0 vs. Bakersfield, 2-1 vs. Cal Poly)
UCSB 120 (+3) - 17-17, 4-5 (1-0 vs. Cal Poly, 0-3 at Long Beach)
Riverside 140 (-4) - 10-18, 2-4 (0-1 vs. P'dine, 1-2 vs. Bakersfield)
UC Davis 178 (-19) - 13-18, 2-4 (0-1 at Sac State, 2-1 vs. Pacific)
Pacific 209 (-7) - 11-24, 1-5 (0-1 at Stanford, 1-2 at UC Davis)

Pac 11
UCLA 3 (+3) - 24-8, 10-5 (1-0 vs. Fullerton, 2-1 at Arizona)
Oregon 12 (+10) - 24-10, 10-5 (2-0 vs. USF, 2-1 at Stanford)
Stanford 15 (-6) - 22-9, 5-7 (1-0 at Cal, 1-0 vs. Pacific, 1-2 vs. Oregon)
Arizona 19 (+4) - 24-11, 10-5 (1-2 vs. UCLA)
ASU 29 (+10) - 23-13, 9-6 - INELIGIBLE POST-SEASON (1-1 at New Mexico, 3-0 vs. USC)
Washington 39 (-11) - 18-15, 5-7 (0-2 vs. Gonzaga, 1-2 at Cal)
OSU 40 (-5) - 23-11, 6-6  (2-0 at Nevada, 3-0 vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff)
USC 48 (-15) - 19-14, 5-9 - (0-1  vs. LMU, 0-3 at ASU)
Cal 66 (+1) - 19-15, 4-8 (0-1 vs. Stanford, 0-1 at Santa Clara, 2-1 vs. Washington)
WSU 77 (-9) - 18-14, 5-7 (1-0 at Portland, 2-1 vs Utah)
Utah 191 (-5) - 9-25, 5-10 (0-1 vs. Utah Valley, 1-2 at WSU)

WCC
Gonzaga 14 (+11) - 25-9, 6-3 (2-0 at Washington, 3-0 vs. Santa Clara)
San Diego 25 (+4) - 29-8, 7-2 (1-0 at SDSU, 3-0 vs. La Salle)
P'dine 28 (+3) - 22-14, 5-4 (1-0 at Riverside, 2-1 vs. Portland)
Portland 75 (-12) - 18-10, 7-5 (0-1 vs. WSU, 1-2 at P'dine)
Santa Clara 83 (+6) - 18-15, 1-8 (1-0 vs. Cal, 0-3 at Gonzaga)
BYU 86 (+7) - 17-13, 6-3 (3-1 at Seattle)
St. Mary's 114 (+19) - 17-15, 2-7 (2-2 at Hawaii)
LMU 117 (+3) - 14-15, 5-4 (1-0 at USC, 1-2 vs. USF)
USF 145 (+2) - 15-23, 3-6 (0-2 at Oregon, 2-1 at LMU)

WAC
New Mexico State 21 (NC) - 27-10, 4-2 (2-1 at Sac State)
Nevada 67 (+3) - 19-15, 4-2 (0-2 vs. OSU, 3-0 vs. La Tech)
Hawaii 89 (+3) - 21-15, 2-1 (2-2 vs. St. Mary's)
La. Tech 133 (-8 ) - 17-18, 1-5 (1-0 vs. Stephen F. Austin, 0-3 at Nevada)
Sac State 137 (+37) - 18-18, 3-3 (1-0 vs. UC Davis, 1-2 vs. NMSU)
Fresno State 150 (-26) - 15-19, 1-5 (0-3 vs. San Jose)
San Jose State 196 (+16) - 17-13, 3-0 (3-0 at Fresno)

MWC
TCU 43 (+10) - 20-13, 9-3 (1-0 vs. UT Arlington, 3-0 vs. Air Force)
New Mexico 113 (+25) - 17-18, 9-3 (1-1 vs. ASU, 2-1 at SDSU)
San Diego State 149 (-21) - 18-19, 7-5 (0-1 vs. Long Beach, 1-2 vs. New Mexico)
UNLV 205 (+5) - 17-19, 2-10 (3-1 vs. Nebraska-Omaha)
Air Force 259 (NC) - 8-25, 3-9 (1-0 vs. Northern Colorado, 0-3 at TCU)

Independents/Others
Bakersfield 154 (-35) - 17-17 (0-1 at Northridge, 2-1 at Riverside)
Utah Valley 159 (-25) - 22-11, 8-0 (1-0 at Utah, 4-0 vs. Chicago State)
Seattle 162 (+7) - 15-15 (1-3 vs. BYU)

Monday, April 9, 2012

West Coast Weekly RPI Report (April 9)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in orange, past opponents in blue)

Big West 
Fullerton 16 (+3) - 21-10, 5-1 (1-0 at SDSU, 3-0 vs. UCD)
Cal Poly 42 (+15) - 20-10, 4-2 (3-0 vs. Irvine)
Irvine 66 (-7) - 17-12, 3-3 (0-3 at CP)
Long Beach 69 (+12) - 12-17, 4-2 (2-1 at UCR)
UCSB 123 (-30) - 16-14, 4-2 (0-1 vs. Bakersfield, 2-1 vs. CSUN)
Northridge 135 (-7) - 13-18, 2-4 (0-1 vs. LMU, 1-2 at UCSB)
Riverside 136 (-3) - 9-15, 2-4 (1-2 vs. LB)
UC Davis 159 (-8 ) - 11-16, 0-3 (0-3 at Fullerton)
Pacific 202 (+8 ) - 10-21, 0-3 (1-2 vs. San Jose H/H/A)

Pac 11
UCLA 6 (+2) - 21-7, 8-4 (1-2 vs. Oregon)
Stanford 9 (NC) - 19-7, 4-5 (1-0 vs. St. Mary's, 2-1 at UW)
Oregon 22 (+9) - 20-9, 8-4 (2-1 at UCLA)
Arizona 23 (-17) - 23-9, 9-3 (0-1 at Utah Valley, 2-1 at Utah)
Washington 28 (+7) - 17-11, 4-5 (1-2 vs. Stanford)
USC 33 (+8 ) - 19-10, 5-6 - (1-0 vs. P'dine, 2-1 vs. Cal) 
OSU 35 (-14) - 18-11, 6-6  (1-0 vs. Portland, 0-3 at ASU)
ASU 39 (+12) - 19-12, 6-6 - INELIGIBLE FOR POST-SEASON (3-0 vs. Oregon State) 
Cal 67 (+12) - 17-12, 2-7 (1-2 at USC)
WSU 68 (-10) - 15-13, 3-5 - (0-1 at Gonzaga, 2-1 vs Seattle)
Utah 186 (+9) - 8-22, 4-8 (0-1 vs. BYU, 1-2 vs. Arizona)

WCC
Gonzaga 25 (+3) - 20-9, 3-3 (1-0 vs. WSU, 1-2 at USD)
San Diego 29 (+4) - 25-8, 7-2 (2-1 vs. Gonzaga)
P'dine 31 (-4) - 19-13, 3-3 (0-1 at USC, 2-1 at St. Mary's) 
Portland 63 (+8 ) - 17-7, 6-3 (0-1 at OSU, 3-0 vs. USF)
Santa Clara 89 (-25) - 17-12, 1-5 (1-0 vs. Fresno, 0-3 at Bakersfield)
BYU 93 (-14) - 14-12, 6-3 (1-0 at Utah, 2-1 vs. LMU)
LMU 120 (-9) - 13-14, 4-2 (1-0 at CSUN, 1-2 at BYU) 
St. Mary's 133 (+16) - 15-15, 2-7 (0-1 at Stanford, 1-2 vs. P'dine)
USF 147 (-30) - 13-20, 1-5 (0-1 vs. San Jose, 0-3 at Portland)

WAC
New Mexico State 21 (-6) - 25-9, 2-1 (1-0 vs. New Mexico, 2-1 vs. Nevada)
Nevada 70 (-14) - 16-13, 1-2 (1-2 at NMSU)
Hawaii 92 (-16) - 19-13, 2-1 (2-1 vs. Fresno)
Fresno State 124 (-17) - 15-16, 1-2 (0-1 at Santa Clara, 1-2 at Hawaii)
La. Tech 125 (+2) - 16-16, 1-2 (1-0 vs. Grambling, 1-2 vs. Sac State)
Sac State 174 (+43) - 16-16, 2-1 (2-1 at La. Tech)
San Jose State 212 (-9) - 14-13 (1-0 at USF, 2-1 vs. Pacific A/A/H)

MWC
TCU 53 (-5) - 16-13, 6-3 (0-1 vs. Dallas Baptist, 2-1 vs. UNC Wilmington)
San Diego State 127 (+18 ) - 17-16, 6-3 (0-1 vs. Fullerton, 3-0 at UNLV)
New Mexico 138 (-35) - 14-16, 7-2 (0-1 at NMSU, 2-1 at Air Force)
UNLV 210 (-6) - 14-18, 2-10 (1-0 at Southern Utah, 0-3 vs. SDSU)
Air Force 259 (NC) - 7-22, 3-6 (1-2 vs. New Mexico)

Independents/Others
Bakersfield 119 (+45) - 15-15 (1-0 at UCSB, 3-0 vs. Santa Clara)
Utah Valley 134 - 17-11, 4-0 (1-0 vs. Utah, 4-0 vs. North Dakota)
Seattle 169 (+19) - 14-12 (1-2 at WSU)

Monday, April 2, 2012

West Coast Midseason RPI Report (April 2)

By FullertonBaseballFan

(Titans' remaining opponents in *)

Big West
Fullerton 19 (-4) - 17-10, 2-1 (1-1 midweek at ASU, 2-1 vs. Northridge)
*Cal Poly 57 (0) - 17-10, 1-2 (1-2 vs. Long Beach)
*Irvine 59 (+5) - 17-9, 3-0 (0-1 vs. USC, 3-0 vs. Pacific)
*Long Beach 81 (+20) - 10-16, 2-1 (0-1 vs. WSU, 2-1 at Cal Poly)
*UCSB 93 (+29) - 14-12, 2-1 (1-0 vs. P'dine, 2-1 vs. UCR)
Northridge 128 (+18) - 12-15, 1-2 (1-2 at Fullerton)
*Riverside 133 (-25) - 8-13, 1-2 (0-1 at SDSU, 1-2 at UCSB)
*UC Davis 151 (-21) - 11-13, 0-0 (0-1 vs. Nevada, 1-3 at Hawaii)
*Pacific 210 (-5) - 8-19, 0-3 (0-3 at Irvine)

Pac 11
Arizona 6 (+11) - 18-7, 7-2 (3-0 vs. Stanford)
*UCLA 8 (-4) - 20-5, 7-2 (0-1 vs. WSU, 3-0 at Utah)
Stanford 9 (-7) - 16-6, 2-4 (0-1 vs. USC, 1-0 vs. St. Mary's, 0-3 at Arizona)
OSU 21 (+11) - 17-8, 6-3 (2-1 vs. Wash)
Oregon 31 (-1) - 18-8, 6-3 (0-2 at Texas State, 3-0 vs. ASU)
Washington 35 (+5) - 16-9, 3-3 (1-2 at OSU)
*USC 41 (+5) - 16-9, 3-5 - at WSU today (1-0 at Stanford, 1-0 at UCI, 1-1 at WSU)
ASU 51 (-10) - 16-12, 3-6 - INELIGIBLE (1-1 vs. Fullerton, 0-3 at Oregon)
WSU 58 (+49) - 13-11, 3-5 - vs. USC today (1-0 at UCLA, 1-0 at LBSU, 1-1 vs. USC)
Cal 77 (+20) - 16-10, 1-5 (1-0 at Fresno, 2-1 at Texas)
Utah 195 (-5) - 7-19, 3-6 (0-1 vs. BYU, 0-3 vs. UCLA)

WCC
*Pepperdine 27 (-8 ) - 17-11, 1-2 (0-1 at UCSB, 1-2 at Gonzaga)
Gonzaga 28 (-4) - 18-7, 2-1 (2-1 vs. P'dine)
San Diego 33 (+14) - 23-7, 5-1 (1-0 vs. Santa Clara, 2-1 at USF)
Santa Clara 64 (-12) - 16-9, 1-5 (0-1 at USD, 2-0 vs. Brown, 1-2 vs. Portland)
Portland 71 (+21) - 14-6, 3-3 (2-1 at Santa Clara)
BYU 79 (-29) - 11-11, 4-2 (1-0 at Utah, 1-2 at Nevada)
*LMU 111 (+49) - 11-12, 3-0 (3-0 vs. St. Mary's)
USF 117 (-4) - 13-16, 1-2 (0-1 vs. Sac State, 1-2 vs. USD)
St. Mary's 149 (-39) - 14-12, 1-5 (0-1 at Stanford, 0-3 at LMU

WAC
New Mexico State 15 (+1) - 22-8 (1-0 at Texas Tech)
Nevada 56 (+21) - 15-11 (1-0 at UC Davis, 2-1 vs. BYU)
Hawaii 76 (-9) - 17-12 (3-1 vs. UC Davis)
Fresno State 107 (-48 ) - 14-13 (0-1 vs. Cal, 1-2 vs. New Mexico)
La. Tech 127 (+14) - 14-13 (1-0 vs. N'western State, 1-0 at Grambling, 1-2 at ORU)
San Jose State 203 (-31) - 11-12 (1-1 vs. Brown)
Sac State 217 (+3) - 14-15 (1-0 at USF, 1-2 at Bakersfield)

MWC
TCU 48 (-9) - 14-11, 6-3 (0-1 at UT Arlington, 2-1 vs. UNLV)
New Mexico 103 (-27) - 12-14, 5-1 (0-2 vs. Stephen F. Austin, 2-1 at Fresno)
*San Diego State 145 (-16) - 14-15, 3-3 (1-0 vs. UCR, 3-0 vs. Air Force Academy)
UNLV 204 (+3) - 13-15, 2-7 (1-0 vs. Southern Utah, 1-2 at TCU)
Air Force 259 (-18) - 6-20, 2-4 (0-2 at Bakersfield, 0-3 at SDSU)

Independents
Bakersfield 164 (-7) - 11-15 (2-0 vs. Air Force, 2-1 vs. Sac State)
Seattle 188 (-5) - 13-10 (2-1 vs. Northern Colorado)

Monday, March 26, 2012

West Coast Midseason RPI Report (March 26)

By FullertonBaseballFan

The RPI is starting to become relevant now that everybody has played about 20-25 games and conference play has started in most conferences or will be doing so this week. This is a good time to do a "mid-season" report with some commentary on where the five western conferences stand at this point in terms of the post-season.

Big West
Fullerton 15 - 14-8
Cal Poly 57 - 16-8
Irvine 64 - 14-8
Long Beach 101 - 8-14
Riverside 108 - 7-10
UCSB 122 - 11-11
UC Davis 130 - 10-9
Northridge 146 - 11-13
Pacific 205 - 7-16

Commentary - It looks like the Big West will get no more than three regional bids and most likely will end up with two regional teams. Fullerton is positioning themselves to be a regional host with a strong run during the conference season but has lots of work to do to be a national seed.


Pac-11
Stanford 2 - 15-2, 2-0 (3rd game vs. USC today)
UCLA 4 - 17-4, 4-1 (3rd game vs. WSU today)
Arizona 17 - 18-7, 4-2
Oregon 30 - 15-6, 3-3
OSU 32 - 15-7, 4-2
Washington 40 - 15-7, 2-1
ASU 41 - 15-8, 3-3 - NOTE - ASU IS INELIGIBLE FOR THE POST-SEASON
USC 46 - 13-8, 1-4 (3rd game at Stanford today)
Cal 97 - 13-9, 1-5
WSU 107 - 10-10, 1-4 (3rd game at UCLA today)
Utah 190 - 7-15, 3-3

Commentary - The Pac 11 will probably end up with five or six teams in regionals and if there are two national seeds from the west (last year there weren't any, most years there are 1-2) they will likely be Stanford and UCLA.


WCC
P'dine 19 - 16-8
Gonzaga 24 - 16-6
San Diego 47 - 20-6, 2-0 (3rd game today vs. Santa Clara)
BYU 50 - 9-9, 4-2
Santa Clara 52 - 13-6, 0-2 (3rd game today at USD)
Portland 92 - 12-5, 1-2
St. Mary's 110 - 14-8, 1-2
USF 113 - 12-13
LMU 160 - 8-12

Commentary - There isn't much dispute that the WCC has been the second best conference in the western U.S. in 2012 with five of their teams having better RPI's than the next two Big West schools. The WCC has been a one bid the last three years but looks like a three bid conference this season.


WAC
New Mexico State 16 - 21-8
Fresno State 59 - 13-10
Hawaii 67 - 14-11
Nevada 77 - 12-9
La. Tech 141 - 11-11
San Jose State 172 - 10-11
Sac State 220 - 12-13

Commentary - The WAC could end up getting two regional bids if NMSU can continue to play well in WAC games and they end up keeping their RPI under 50. If they don't, the WAC will be a one bid conference. The WAC looks comparable to the Big West, which shows you how far the level of competition in the Big West has fallen.


MWC
TCU 39 - 12-9, 1-2
New Mexico 76 - 10-11, 5-1
San Diego State 129 - 10-15, 0-3
UNLV 207 - 11-13, 1-5
Air Force 241 - 6-15, 2-1

Commentary - The only way two teams from this conference get into regionals is if somebody upsets TCU in the conference tournament, which is what it took last season to get two teams into the regionals.


Independents
Bakersfield 157 - 7-14
Seattle 183 - 11-9

Commentary - Bakersfield made lots of noise last year they should have been one of the last teams included in the regional field. That won't be the case this season.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Weekly RPI Report (Final)

By Samuel Chi

The NCAA will announce its 64-team field today at 12:30 p.m. ET (9:30 p.m. PT). It is a foregone conclusion that the Titans will be among the eight national seeds. The question is, who will they be playing and which regional will they be paired against?

The Titans finish the regular season with the No. 1 rating in the RPI, but most likely they will not be the overall No. 1 seed because they finished five games behind UC Irvine in the Big West. It looks, though, that they will be a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, the highest seed of teams that are not automatic qualifiers.

With three national seeds but otherwise a dearth of quality teams from the West, the Titans should get pretty favorable matchups in the regional, even if as expected San Diego State lands in Goodwin. Stephen Strasburg will pitch a great game, but it won't be against the Titans.

As for the super regional, should the Titans get that far, their opponent will be from a regional played east of the Rockies. Most likely, it will be an ACC or Big 12 team.

Here's the final national seed forecast:

1. Texas, 2. Arizona State, 3. LSU, 4. UC Irvine, 5. Cal State Fullerton, 6. North Carolina, 7. Rice, 8. Florida State.

Super Regional matchups:

Texas-East Carolina (Virginia No. 1 seed); Arizona State-Louisville; LSU-Clemson; UCI-Georgia Tech; CSF-Oklahoma; North Carolina-Ole Miss; Rice-Texas Christian; Florida State-Florida.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Final Regional Projections

By Samuel Chi

The NCAA will announce this year's regional sites at 3:30 p.m. ET (12:30 p.m. PT). If you want to get a jump on things, it'll be shown on ESPN's Bottom Line crawl and also at www.ncaa.com.

The following teams are projected to get to host regionals -

ACC (4) - Florida State, North Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech
SEC (3) - LSU, Florida, Mississippi
Big West (2)- UC Irvine, Cal State Fullerton
Big 12 (2) - Texas, Oklahoma
Pac-10 - Arizona State
MWC - Texas Christian
CUSA - Rice
Big East - Louisville
Big Ten - Minnesota

Since the sites will be announced before the games are over on Sunday, the national and regional seedings may change slightly. At the moment, this looks like how the top teams will be seeded:

1. Texas, 2. Arizona State, 3. UC Irvine, 4. LSU, 5. Cal State Fullerton, 6. Florida State, 7. Rice, 8. North Carolina.

Rice may have to win the Conference USA title game to secure the national seed, or it may fall to Florida.

The other regional hosts are expected to be 1-seeds, except Minnesota, which may end up as a 2-seed if Virgina wins the ACC championship game against Florida State.

The Titans are locked into the No. 1 spot in the RPI, no matter what happens in today's games. Fullerton is certain to get a national seed, and because of a dearth of quality West Coast teams this year, it may get a pretty favorable draw both in the regional and the super regional.

The entire 64-team bracket will be announced on ESPN at 12:30 p.m. ET (9:30 a.m. PT) on Monday.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Weekly RPI Report (T-1)

Let's go right for the most unthinkable scenario. For several weeks now, much speculation has been focused on whether the West would indeed get the three national seeds that it deserves. And if the committee somehow screws one team, whom would it be.

Would you believe ... UC Irvine?

Yes, yes, yes, it's far-fetched. But let's give this a good look. Currently, the 'Eaters are No. 18 in the RPI and it's likely that they could be out of the top 20 altogether by the end of the regular season. Would the committee take a team outside of the top 20 and make it a national seed - particularly if that team puts in a weak hosting bid and could be conveniently packed into a roadtrip for a top regional seed elsewhere?

It would be criminal, but it's the NCAA, so no one should be surprised if it happens. And if it does, expect the 'Eaters to be paired off with Arizona State in a Super Regional showdown.

For the Titans, currently holder of the No. 1 spot in the RPI, the path to a national seed seems pretty clear: Win the Long Beach series, which will guarantee a second-place finish in the Big West and a top 5 finish in the RPI.

Over the past four years, only one team that finished in the RPI top 5 failed to earn a national seed - Texas in 2005, when the 'Horns finished No. 4 in the RPI but third in the Big 12, behind Nebraska and Baylor, who were both national seeds. However, the 'Horns went on to win the national championship that year, the fifth for Augie Garrido.

Here's a year-by-year national seed review, from 2005-2008:

2008

1. Miami (1 RPI)
2. North Carolina (2)
3. Arizona State (4)
4. Florida State (3)
5. Cal State Fullerton (10)
6. Rice (5)
7. LSU (8)
8. Georgia (12)

RPI top 10 left out: Nebraska (6), Georgia Tech (7), Oklahoma State (9).

2007

1. Vanderbilt (2)
2. Rice (1)
3. North Carolina (4)
4. Texas (3)
5. Arizona State (5)
6. Florida State (6)
7. Arkansas (17)
8. San Diego (15)

RPI top 10 left out: Texas A&M (7), Virginia (8), South Carolina (9), Missouri (10)

2006

1. Clemson (1)
2. Rice (2)
3. Texas (5)
4. Alabama (7)
5. Cal State Fullerton (3)
6. Nebraska (8)
7. Georgia (4)
8. Georgia Tech (6)

RPI top 10 left out: Oklahoma (9), North Carolina (10)

2005

1. Tulane (3)
2. Georgia Tech (2)
3. Nebraska (17)
4. Baylor (6)
5. Ole Miss (1)
6. Cal State Fullerton (14)
7. Florida (5)
8. Oregon State (11)

RPI top 10 left out: Texas (4), Miami (7), LSU (8), Clemson (9), NC State (10).


A few observations:

* The ACC and SEC had at least two national seeds each every year from 2006-2008.
* The West had two national seeds (but not more) in three of the past four years.
* The Big 12 have not had two national seeds in the same year since 2006.
* The highest RPI to get a national seed is 17.
* Two schools earned national seeds in three of those years (Fullerton, Rice).


Based on the committee's history, it's probably unlikely that UC Irvine, which has clinched the Big West title, would be snubbed of a national seed - barring a sweep by UC Santa Barbara this weekend. Still, with its heavy reliance on the RPI, the possibility is there. As for the Titans, short of a disaster against the Dirtbags, the prospects for a national seed are very good.

Here's this week's national seed forecast:

1. North Carolina, 2. Arizona State, 3. Texas, 4. UC Irvine, 5. LSU, 6. Cal State Fullerton, 7. Florida, 8. Rice.

One national seed (the No. 7 slot in this projection) should be up for grabs between the second team from the ACC and SEC. Rice, after failing to win the Conference USA regular-season title, may need to win the conference tournament to lock up a spot.

The other regional hosts would be:

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, TCU and East Carolina.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Weekly RPI Report (T-2)

By Samuel Chi

The Titans went 4-1 last week, beating Arizona twice and taking two of three from Cal Poly. With North Carolina losing a series to NC State, Fullerton returned to the top spot in the RPI, solidifying its claim on a national seed.

Combined with UC Santa Barbara's three-game sweep of Long Beach State (at Goodwin Field, no less), the Titans are now in sole possession of second place in the Big West. If they can beat the Dirtbags twice in the season-ending series, they should clinch second place in the conference and put aside any doubts of nailing down a national seed.

Series wins over UCLA next week and Long Beach, plus a midweek victory over Pepperdine will guarantee Fullerton a top five finish in the RPI. Though the top four teams in the RPI are bunched together and may see their positions fluctuate, there's a sizable gap between these teams and the No. 6 spot, currently occupied by Florida. (Arizona State is at No. 5.)

As of Monday morning, this is the current RPI and national seeding picture:

No. 1 Cal State Fullerton (Big West) - Near lock, second in conference
No. 2 Georgia Tech (ACC) - Near lock, leads ACC Coastal, Duke to come
No. 3 Texas (Big 12) - Lock, needs one K-State loss to clinch title
No. 4 North Carolina (ACC) - Near lock, holds tiebreakers over GT and Virginia
No. 5 Arizona State (Pac-10) - Lock, has comfortable lead in conference
No. 8 UC Irvine (Big West) - Lock, clinched title with two series left
No. 9 Rice (C-USA) - Lock, can clinch title with series win at UAB
No. 11 Virginia (ACC) - Slim, may need to win ACC Tournament
No. 13 LSU (ACC) - Near lock, can clinch SEC East at Mississippi State
No. 14 Florida State (ACC) - Slim, will need to win ACC Tournament

At the moment, it looks like the eight national seeds will come from this group. Barring dramatic results from the ACC or SEC tournaments, it looks like the ACC will get two national seeds and SEC only one. The others will go to the three West Coast teams and two Texas teams.

These are the latest national seed projections:

1. North Carolina, 2. UC Irvine, 3. Rice, 4. Texas, 5. Cal State Fullerton, 6. Arizona State, 7. Georgia Tech, 8. LSU.

These teams are projected to be regional top seeds and most likely hosts:

Florida, Ole Miss, Clemson, Virginia, Florida State, Minnesota, TCU and the Oklahoma-Texas A&M series winner.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Weekly RPI Report (T-3)

By Samuel Chi

With the post-season less than a month away, it's time for us to take a good look at the Titans' prospects, in terms of seeding and hosting possibilities. So here's the first RPI Report of the season.

As of today, the Titans are ranked No. 2 in the RPI. With 11 of 12 remaining games against teams in the top 100 RPI, the Titans have a strong chance maintaining their high ranking. According to Boyd's report, Fullerton needs to go 7-5 to stay in the top 8 in RPI, presumably locking up a national seed.

The feeling here is that the Titans would have to do better than that. A top five ranking, plus finishing no worse than tied for second in the Big West, should be good enough for Fullerton to get a national seed, thus ensuring all of its regional and super regional games would be played at Goodwin Field.

(On the other hand, since the Titans are a worse-than-mediocre 13-8 at home and an amazing 19-4 away from Goodwin ...)

If the Titans win 10 of their final 12 games, getting at least a series win against both Cal Poly and Long Beach State, that should take care of things. By going 10-2, the Titans should finish in the top five in the final RPI and no worse than tied for second in the Big West.

Here's a look at all the potential national seed contenders:

1. North Carolina (ACC) - Lock, leads ACC Coastal
2. Cal State Fullerton (Big West) - Probable, trails UC Irvine
3. Georgia Tech (ACC) - Likely, trails UNC in ACC Coastal
4. Texas (Big 12) - Probable, leads Big 12
5. Rice (C-USA) - Lock, leads conference
6. Miami (ACC) - Unlikely, 15-12 in ACC
7. UC Irvine (Big West) - Lock, leads Big West (ironically, the 'Eaters have just about no chance of staying in the RPI top 8)
8. Florida (SEC) - Likely, leads SEC East
9. Arizona State (Pac-10) - Likely, leads conference
10. Clemson (ACC) - Unlikely, trails Florida State in ACC Atlantic
11. TCU (MWC) - Unlikely, leads conference
14. LSU (SEC) - Likely, leads SEC West

The breakdown:

Lock (3) - North Carolina, Rice, UC Irvine
Probable (2) - Fullerton, Texas
Likely (4) - Georgia Tech, Florida, Arizona State, LSU
Unlikely (3) - Miami, Clemson, TCU

If everything goes according to form, this weekend's Florida-LSU series in Baton Rouge should produce the final national seed.

The first national seed forecast:

1. North Carolina, 2. Rice, 3. Cal State Fullerton, 4. Texas, 5. UC Irvine, 6. Georgia Tech, 7. Arizona State, 8. LSU