GAME 52: UCLA 13, TITANS 10
GAME 53: TITANS 9, PEPPERDINE 1
By Samuel Chi
After losing the final game against UCLA and routing Pepperdine in the season's final mid-week game (both started by Tyler Pill, incidentally), the Titans are ready for their regular-season finale against their arch rival Long Beach State Dirtbags.
Unlike in past years, there isn't much on the line for this series. The Dirtbags are out of postseason contention and will be playing strictly for pride. The Titans, on the other hand, should be able to wrap up a national seed with just one victory in the three-game set.
If Cal Poly does not sweep UC Riverside, then a single victory will secure no worse than second place in the Big West for the Titans. That, combined with their RPI, which should end the season at either No. 1 or No. 2, will be enough to keep Fullerton home until Omaha time.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Diamond Club: Tuffy's Titans
The May 17 edition is posted below ... please click on each individual page to enlarge for easy reading.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Weekly RPI Report (T-1)
Let's go right for the most unthinkable scenario. For several weeks now, much speculation has been focused on whether the West would indeed get the three national seeds that it deserves. And if the committee somehow screws one team, whom would it be.
Would you believe ... UC Irvine?
Yes, yes, yes, it's far-fetched. But let's give this a good look. Currently, the 'Eaters are No. 18 in the RPI and it's likely that they could be out of the top 20 altogether by the end of the regular season. Would the committee take a team outside of the top 20 and make it a national seed - particularly if that team puts in a weak hosting bid and could be conveniently packed into a roadtrip for a top regional seed elsewhere?
It would be criminal, but it's the NCAA, so no one should be surprised if it happens. And if it does, expect the 'Eaters to be paired off with Arizona State in a Super Regional showdown.
For the Titans, currently holder of the No. 1 spot in the RPI, the path to a national seed seems pretty clear: Win the Long Beach series, which will guarantee a second-place finish in the Big West and a top 5 finish in the RPI.
Over the past four years, only one team that finished in the RPI top 5 failed to earn a national seed - Texas in 2005, when the 'Horns finished No. 4 in the RPI but third in the Big 12, behind Nebraska and Baylor, who were both national seeds. However, the 'Horns went on to win the national championship that year, the fifth for Augie Garrido.
Here's a year-by-year national seed review, from 2005-2008:
2008
1. Miami (1 RPI)
2. North Carolina (2)
3. Arizona State (4)
4. Florida State (3)
5. Cal State Fullerton (10)
6. Rice (5)
7. LSU (8)
8. Georgia (12)
RPI top 10 left out: Nebraska (6), Georgia Tech (7), Oklahoma State (9).
2007
1. Vanderbilt (2)
2. Rice (1)
3. North Carolina (4)
4. Texas (3)
5. Arizona State (5)
6. Florida State (6)
7. Arkansas (17)
8. San Diego (15)
RPI top 10 left out: Texas A&M (7), Virginia (8), South Carolina (9), Missouri (10)
2006
1. Clemson (1)
2. Rice (2)
3. Texas (5)
4. Alabama (7)
5. Cal State Fullerton (3)
6. Nebraska (8)
7. Georgia (4)
8. Georgia Tech (6)
RPI top 10 left out: Oklahoma (9), North Carolina (10)
2005
1. Tulane (3)
2. Georgia Tech (2)
3. Nebraska (17)
4. Baylor (6)
5. Ole Miss (1)
6. Cal State Fullerton (14)
7. Florida (5)
8. Oregon State (11)
RPI top 10 left out: Texas (4), Miami (7), LSU (8), Clemson (9), NC State (10).
A few observations:
* The ACC and SEC had at least two national seeds each every year from 2006-2008.
* The West had two national seeds (but not more) in three of the past four years.
* The Big 12 have not had two national seeds in the same year since 2006.
* The highest RPI to get a national seed is 17.
* Two schools earned national seeds in three of those years (Fullerton, Rice).
Based on the committee's history, it's probably unlikely that UC Irvine, which has clinched the Big West title, would be snubbed of a national seed - barring a sweep by UC Santa Barbara this weekend. Still, with its heavy reliance on the RPI, the possibility is there. As for the Titans, short of a disaster against the Dirtbags, the prospects for a national seed are very good.
Here's this week's national seed forecast:
1. North Carolina, 2. Arizona State, 3. Texas, 4. UC Irvine, 5. LSU, 6. Cal State Fullerton, 7. Florida, 8. Rice.
One national seed (the No. 7 slot in this projection) should be up for grabs between the second team from the ACC and SEC. Rice, after failing to win the Conference USA regular-season title, may need to win the conference tournament to lock up a spot.
The other regional hosts would be:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, TCU and East Carolina.
Would you believe ... UC Irvine?
Yes, yes, yes, it's far-fetched. But let's give this a good look. Currently, the 'Eaters are No. 18 in the RPI and it's likely that they could be out of the top 20 altogether by the end of the regular season. Would the committee take a team outside of the top 20 and make it a national seed - particularly if that team puts in a weak hosting bid and could be conveniently packed into a roadtrip for a top regional seed elsewhere?
It would be criminal, but it's the NCAA, so no one should be surprised if it happens. And if it does, expect the 'Eaters to be paired off with Arizona State in a Super Regional showdown.
For the Titans, currently holder of the No. 1 spot in the RPI, the path to a national seed seems pretty clear: Win the Long Beach series, which will guarantee a second-place finish in the Big West and a top 5 finish in the RPI.
Over the past four years, only one team that finished in the RPI top 5 failed to earn a national seed - Texas in 2005, when the 'Horns finished No. 4 in the RPI but third in the Big 12, behind Nebraska and Baylor, who were both national seeds. However, the 'Horns went on to win the national championship that year, the fifth for Augie Garrido.
Here's a year-by-year national seed review, from 2005-2008:
2008
1. Miami (1 RPI)
2. North Carolina (2)
3. Arizona State (4)
4. Florida State (3)
5. Cal State Fullerton (10)
6. Rice (5)
7. LSU (8)
8. Georgia (12)
RPI top 10 left out: Nebraska (6), Georgia Tech (7), Oklahoma State (9).
2007
1. Vanderbilt (2)
2. Rice (1)
3. North Carolina (4)
4. Texas (3)
5. Arizona State (5)
6. Florida State (6)
7. Arkansas (17)
8. San Diego (15)
RPI top 10 left out: Texas A&M (7), Virginia (8), South Carolina (9), Missouri (10)
2006
1. Clemson (1)
2. Rice (2)
3. Texas (5)
4. Alabama (7)
5. Cal State Fullerton (3)
6. Nebraska (8)
7. Georgia (4)
8. Georgia Tech (6)
RPI top 10 left out: Oklahoma (9), North Carolina (10)
2005
1. Tulane (3)
2. Georgia Tech (2)
3. Nebraska (17)
4. Baylor (6)
5. Ole Miss (1)
6. Cal State Fullerton (14)
7. Florida (5)
8. Oregon State (11)
RPI top 10 left out: Texas (4), Miami (7), LSU (8), Clemson (9), NC State (10).
A few observations:
* The ACC and SEC had at least two national seeds each every year from 2006-2008.
* The West had two national seeds (but not more) in three of the past four years.
* The Big 12 have not had two national seeds in the same year since 2006.
* The highest RPI to get a national seed is 17.
* Two schools earned national seeds in three of those years (Fullerton, Rice).
Based on the committee's history, it's probably unlikely that UC Irvine, which has clinched the Big West title, would be snubbed of a national seed - barring a sweep by UC Santa Barbara this weekend. Still, with its heavy reliance on the RPI, the possibility is there. As for the Titans, short of a disaster against the Dirtbags, the prospects for a national seed are very good.
Here's this week's national seed forecast:
1. North Carolina, 2. Arizona State, 3. Texas, 4. UC Irvine, 5. LSU, 6. Cal State Fullerton, 7. Florida, 8. Rice.
One national seed (the No. 7 slot in this projection) should be up for grabs between the second team from the ACC and SEC. Rice, after failing to win the Conference USA regular-season title, may need to win the conference tournament to lock up a spot.
The other regional hosts would be:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, TCU and East Carolina.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Titans Bend but Don't Break
GAME 51: TITANS 6, UCLA 5 (10 innings)
By Don Hudson
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
The Cal State Fullerton Titans were firing on all cylinders last night at Jackie Robinson Stadium, leading the UCLA Bruins by a 5-0 score before a two-out seventh inning rally capped by a Cody Decker grand slam tied the score. However, the confident and resilient Titans took the Bruins' best shot and eked out a ten-inning 6-5 win in a game that featured power, speed, defense and pitching - both good and bad.
It was a battle between freshmen pitching sensations Noe Ramirez and UCLA's Trevor Bauer, who entered college a year ahead of his high school class. Both represented themselves well and had streaks of brilliance: Noe early in the game and Bauer later.
After a scoreless first inning (one hit for each team, with the UCLA inning ending on a "strike'em out, throw'em out" double-play), the Titans got on the board on the strength of a walk to Khris Davis and a home run to left-centerfield by Dustin Garneau. Bauer allowed a single to Joey Siddons and a walk to Christian Colon, but escaped further damage by retiring Gary Brown.
Noe allowed a second-inning single to Gabe Cohen, but escaped danger when Garneau threw the runner out at second attempting a steal. Could the first two innings have been any better for Garneau: two caught-stealings and a two-run homer?
It looked like it would be a short night for Bauer when Josh Fellhauer led off the third inning with a home run to rightfield, giving the Titans a 3-0 lead.
Noe was breezing along until a double and a single put Bruins runners on the corners with one out in the bottom of the fourth inning. But Justin Uribe hit a sharp grounder that 1B Jared Clark backhanded nicely and fired to Colon to start a potential inning-ending double-play. Noe got a late jump covering first, which caused Colon to have to delay his throw slightly, but the shortstop's cannon arm allowed him to get the ball to first in time to complete the 3-6-1 double-play.
It really looked like a short night for Bauer in the fifth inning when he gave up two more runs and fell behind, 5-0. Colon got the inning started with a double, went to third on a sacrifice by Brown and scored on Felly's groundout. Clark then launched one of his classic tape-measure home runs to leftfield.
Noe gave up an infield single and a walk with two out in the bottom of the fifth, but once again came up with the big pitch and got the final out on an easy grounder to Clark.
Bauer seemed to get relaxed: "It's already 5-0, so what have I got to lose?" From the sixth inning on, the tentative pitcher was gone and a confident pitcher with excellent stuff had taken his place. Garneau got a hit and stole third-base in the sixth inning, but Bauer allowed no hits in his final 3 2/3 innings of work.
The bottom of the seventh began innocently enough, as Noe retired the first two hitters with ease, bringing up the #8 hitter: single to centerfield. Up came the #9 hitter - Tyler Rahmatulla - who had earlier doubled and walked. Noe didn't get a close call on a 2-2 pitch and ended up walking him to bring up the top of the order. No problem, right? Wrong.
A hit batsman loaded the bases and a single to left-field made it 5-1: coach Rick Vanderhook took no chances running on LF Brown's arm trailing by four and his team's leading home run coming to the plate.
That was all for Noe on this night: Michael Morrison was summoned from the bullpen to face the ever-dangerous Cody Decker. After Mikey Mo took his warm-ups and Decker went through his pre-pitch rituals, the battle began.
It was a very brief battle: Decker launched the second pitch from Morrison deep to centerfield for a game-tying grand slam. The Bruins' dugout and fans went berserk. Morrison did avoid an even worse inning by striking out slugger Casey Haerther to end the inning.
After an easy 1-2-3 eighth inning for Bauer against the Titans, Morrison got ahead of Uribe, but he fought off a 1-2 pitch and punched the ball down the rightfield line for a double: it might have been possible for a triple, but you know that cardinal rule about never making the first or third out at third-base, especially late in the game when it is the possible go-ahead run. Exit Morrion, enter Travis Kelly. Rather than bunting the runner to third, UCLA Coach John "The Sheriff" Savage had Marc Navarro swing away and he did the job perfectly: a groundball to second-base that put the go-ahead (and potential winning) run just ninety feet from home.
Noe Ramirez struck out nine hitters and deserved better than a 'no decision'. He dug himself into the hole when he ran put of gas in the seventh inning and allowed the #8 and #9 hitters to reach base with two outs. Both he and Bauer demonstrated why their numbers this season are so good and it will be nice to see them hook up again sometime in the future.
By Don Hudson
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
The Cal State Fullerton Titans were firing on all cylinders last night at Jackie Robinson Stadium, leading the UCLA Bruins by a 5-0 score before a two-out seventh inning rally capped by a Cody Decker grand slam tied the score. However, the confident and resilient Titans took the Bruins' best shot and eked out a ten-inning 6-5 win in a game that featured power, speed, defense and pitching - both good and bad.
It was a battle between freshmen pitching sensations Noe Ramirez and UCLA's Trevor Bauer, who entered college a year ahead of his high school class. Both represented themselves well and had streaks of brilliance: Noe early in the game and Bauer later.
After a scoreless first inning (one hit for each team, with the UCLA inning ending on a "strike'em out, throw'em out" double-play), the Titans got on the board on the strength of a walk to Khris Davis and a home run to left-centerfield by Dustin Garneau. Bauer allowed a single to Joey Siddons and a walk to Christian Colon, but escaped further damage by retiring Gary Brown.Noe allowed a second-inning single to Gabe Cohen, but escaped danger when Garneau threw the runner out at second attempting a steal. Could the first two innings have been any better for Garneau: two caught-stealings and a two-run homer?
It looked like it would be a short night for Bauer when Josh Fellhauer led off the third inning with a home run to rightfield, giving the Titans a 3-0 lead. Noe was breezing along until a double and a single put Bruins runners on the corners with one out in the bottom of the fourth inning. But Justin Uribe hit a sharp grounder that 1B Jared Clark backhanded nicely and fired to Colon to start a potential inning-ending double-play. Noe got a late jump covering first, which caused Colon to have to delay his throw slightly, but the shortstop's cannon arm allowed him to get the ball to first in time to complete the 3-6-1 double-play.
It really looked like a short night for Bauer in the fifth inning when he gave up two more runs and fell behind, 5-0. Colon got the inning started with a double, went to third on a sacrifice by Brown and scored on Felly's groundout. Clark then launched one of his classic tape-measure home runs to leftfield.
Noe gave up an infield single and a walk with two out in the bottom of the fifth, but once again came up with the big pitch and got the final out on an easy grounder to Clark.
Bauer seemed to get relaxed: "It's already 5-0, so what have I got to lose?" From the sixth inning on, the tentative pitcher was gone and a confident pitcher with excellent stuff had taken his place. Garneau got a hit and stole third-base in the sixth inning, but Bauer allowed no hits in his final 3 2/3 innings of work.The bottom of the seventh began innocently enough, as Noe retired the first two hitters with ease, bringing up the #8 hitter: single to centerfield. Up came the #9 hitter - Tyler Rahmatulla - who had earlier doubled and walked. Noe didn't get a close call on a 2-2 pitch and ended up walking him to bring up the top of the order. No problem, right? Wrong.
A hit batsman loaded the bases and a single to left-field made it 5-1: coach Rick Vanderhook took no chances running on LF Brown's arm trailing by four and his team's leading home run coming to the plate.
That was all for Noe on this night: Michael Morrison was summoned from the bullpen to face the ever-dangerous Cody Decker. After Mikey Mo took his warm-ups and Decker went through his pre-pitch rituals, the battle began.It was a very brief battle: Decker launched the second pitch from Morrison deep to centerfield for a game-tying grand slam. The Bruins' dugout and fans went berserk. Morrison did avoid an even worse inning by striking out slugger Casey Haerther to end the inning.
After an easy 1-2-3 eighth inning for Bauer against the Titans, Morrison got ahead of Uribe, but he fought off a 1-2 pitch and punched the ball down the rightfield line for a double: it might have been possible for a triple, but you know that cardinal rule about never making the first or third out at third-base, especially late in the game when it is the possible go-ahead run. Exit Morrion, enter Travis Kelly. Rather than bunting the runner to third, UCLA Coach John "The Sheriff" Savage had Marc Navarro swing away and he did the job perfectly: a groundball to second-base that put the go-ahead (and potential winning) run just ninety feet from home.
Exit Kelley, enter Nick Ramirez.
With the infield in all around, Nick induced Giovanazzo to pop out to Joe Scott. He then gave his team a huge adrenaline surge by striking out Nico Gallego on three pitches.
Bauer continued to get better as his pitch count rose (he ended up with 136) and the game progressed: he threw a 1-2-3 ninth inning before retiring for the night.
Shevis Shima entered the game at second-base in the bottom of the ninth (Matthew Fahey had pinch-hit for Scott) and made the first of two remarkable web-gem defensive plays. Rahmatulla led off the bottom of the ninth and seemed overmatched by Nick Ramirez. He fought off a 1-2 pitch and dinked a little flare headed for disaster along the rightfield line. But Shima got back and made a leaping catch and held onto the ball as his body crashed to the turf. Nick retired the next two hiters to send the game to extra innings.
The Bruins went to the bullpen and brought in southpaw Gavin Brooks. Colon greeted him with a long double to right-centerfield to start the inning. Brown tried to sacrifice the go-ahead run to third base, but his first bunt attempt hit him in the batter's box and was foul. After that, the Titans eschewed the bunt and Brown tried to advance the runner by hitting to the right side, but eventually struck out.
Colon then made on the many big plays in the game: he got a huge lead as Brooks delivered to Fellhauer and stole third-base: the Titans have been aggressive this weekend stealing third-base. Fellhauer then hit a medium-deep flyball to leftfield: LF Dustin Quist got the ball with momentum building as he threw to the plate, but Colon dove headfirst and the ball escaped C Gino Aielli, giving the Titans a 6-5 lead.
Nick Ramirez remained on the bump and he faced the two thumpers in the UCLA line-up - but he got both decker and Haerther to fly out to leftfield as their home run derby attempts fell short. The Bruins' last chance was pinch-hitter Brett Krill - hitting .227 with no home runs. Krill attempted to check his swing on the second pitch, but the ball struck the barrel of the bat and went softly over the pitcher's mound. Colon had no play on the ball, but Shima backhanded it and - with all his momentum carrying him toward third-base - threw across his body to Jared Clark. Krill slid headfirst but just barely after the throw from Shima. A perfect webgem defensive play to end a thriller.
It was the worst of times, it was the best of times.
++++++++++++++++++++++
So what did we learn last night?
Three weeks ago when the team was in a funk, this game would have turned into a loss. But they stuck to the mantra I heard from the very first practice last fall: when something goes bad, your teammates are there to say, "So what?" This game could have easily gotten away and been a disspiriting loss with the national seed seemingly within their grasp.
Noe Ramirez struck out nine hitters and deserved better than a 'no decision'. He dug himself into the hole when he ran put of gas in the seventh inning and allowed the #8 and #9 hitters to reach base with two outs. Both he and Bauer demonstrated why their numbers this season are so good and it will be nice to see them hook up again sometime in the future.Kelly retired the one hitter he faced and Nick Ramirez was absolutely dazzling after that: he retired all eight hitters he faced and getting out of the inherited runner-on-third-and-one-out situation was huge. Now that the closer situation has been settled - Nick put an exclamation mark on that one - the only unsettled roles heading into the playoffs are the set-up relievers. 
Nick proved last night and last Saturday against Cal Poly SLO that he is more than a one-inning closer, but you can't rely on your closer as your seventh- and eighth-inning specialist. Ryan Ackland and Kyle Mertins began the season in those roles and it would not surprise me if they were to reclaim them in the post-season.
Fellhauer led the offense with two hits and three RBI (including the game-winning sacrifice fly). Colon's two doubles were both huge. Garneau had two hits and was brilliant (as usual) behind the plate.
Nick proved last night and last Saturday against Cal Poly SLO that he is more than a one-inning closer, but you can't rely on your closer as your seventh- and eighth-inning specialist. Ryan Ackland and Kyle Mertins began the season in those roles and it would not surprise me if they were to reclaim them in the post-season.Fellhauer led the offense with two hits and three RBI (including the game-winning sacrifice fly). Colon's two doubles were both huge. Garneau had two hits and was brilliant (as usual) behind the plate.
Let's see what we can do this afternoon to finish off the sweep. Hopefully, traffic to Jackie Robinson Stadium won't be as bad on a Sunday morning as it was yesterday afternoon. That may have been the most brutal part of the entire ordeal!
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Titans Hook Bruins
GAME 50: TITANS 6, UCLA 3
By Don Hudson
The human equation was on display Friday night at Goodwin Field as the Cal State Fullerton Titans downed the UCLA Bruins by a 6-3 score. It marked the return of Rick Vanderhook in his first game in the opponent's dugout following a long and distinguished career with the Titans as a player and assistant coach. The game also featured a pitching match-up between former Orange Lutheran teammates Daniel Renken and Gerrit Cole, the 2007 and 2008 Trinity League Pitchers-of-the-Year. Cole surprised the baseball world last summer when he declined a bajillion dollar signing bonus as a first-round draft choice of the New York Yankees and opted to matriculate to UCLA.
Through the outstanding performance of Renken, Vanderhook had very little action in the third base coach's box most of the game: Renken was throwing a no-hitter until two outs in the top of the seventh inning when a soft ducksnort by Cody Decker fell in for a base hit. While Renken displayed great control and command of his pitches, Cole was not so fortunate.
Late in the game, however, the Bruins' bats came alive and they ended up outhitting the Titans, 7-6.
After an easy 1-2-3 first inning for Renken, Cole did not appear to have control right away when he walked leadoff man Christian Colon, who was sacrificed to second by Gary Brown and advanced to third on a passed ball. As proved to be his downfall, Cole got ahead of Clark with a 1-2 count, but could not finish him off: Clark lined a base-hit just over the outstretched glove of leaping third-baseman Casey Haerther and the Titans had a 1-0 lead. Cole then got ahead of Khris Davis 1-2 and threw a high cookieball down the middle of the plate: Davis belted it three-quarters of the way up the batter's eye in centerfield for his team-leading eleventh home run, giving the Titans a 3-0 advantage.
Experience and coaching make a huge difference in baseball. At this point in their college careers, the Renken vs. Cole match-up was a pitcher vs. a thrower. Renken may not have the raw physical talent of Cole to throw in the high 90's, but he has tremendous command of his pitches and a repertoire of pitches he can go to with confidence regardless of the count. He threw 118 pitches in the game - 85 for strikes. Cole walked four and struck out just two: his 102 pitches included 65 strikes. But beware, Titans fans: enjoy it now....because this kid looks like the real deal and he is going to be a force when he gets more experience and coaching. The three biggest hits of the game off him (Clark's RBI single, Davis' two-run homer and Brown's two-RBI single) were all on 1-2 counts.
Add one more chapter to the Jared Clark Legend in his career at Cal State Fullerton.
Some of his best hitting has been against pitchers projected for major league stardom. Who can forget his three-run homer in the 2006 CWS against North Carolina's Andrew Miller, the national Co-Player of the Year (along with Wes Roemer)? Or how about the two-run first-inning homer against Stephen Strasburg of San Diego State, considered the best collegiate pitching prospect in at least one generation? One year to the day after torching Strasburg, Clark got a clutch two-out hit against Gerrit Cole, considered by many scouts as the best pitcher in the 2009 draft. If Clark had not come up with that hit, the game last night could have played much differently.
By Don Hudson
The human equation was on display Friday night at Goodwin Field as the Cal State Fullerton Titans downed the UCLA Bruins by a 6-3 score. It marked the return of Rick Vanderhook in his first game in the opponent's dugout following a long and distinguished career with the Titans as a player and assistant coach. The game also featured a pitching match-up between former Orange Lutheran teammates Daniel Renken and Gerrit Cole, the 2007 and 2008 Trinity League Pitchers-of-the-Year. Cole surprised the baseball world last summer when he declined a bajillion dollar signing bonus as a first-round draft choice of the New York Yankees and opted to matriculate to UCLA.Through the outstanding performance of Renken, Vanderhook had very little action in the third base coach's box most of the game: Renken was throwing a no-hitter until two outs in the top of the seventh inning when a soft ducksnort by Cody Decker fell in for a base hit. While Renken displayed great control and command of his pitches, Cole was not so fortunate.
Late in the game, however, the Bruins' bats came alive and they ended up outhitting the Titans, 7-6.
After an easy 1-2-3 first inning for Renken, Cole did not appear to have control right away when he walked leadoff man Christian Colon, who was sacrificed to second by Gary Brown and advanced to third on a passed ball. As proved to be his downfall, Cole got ahead of Clark with a 1-2 count, but could not finish him off: Clark lined a base-hit just over the outstretched glove of leaping third-baseman Casey Haerther and the Titans had a 1-0 lead. Cole then got ahead of Khris Davis 1-2 and threw a high cookieball down the middle of the plate: Davis belted it three-quarters of the way up the batter's eye in centerfield for his team-leading eleventh home run, giving the Titans a 3-0 advantage.After a second three up, three down inning by Renken, the Titans got a break with an error by the Bruins' oftimes porous defense and added two more unearned runs. 
Dustin Garneau led off the second inning with a walk and advanced to third on a Joe Scott sacrifice and a stolen base. After Colon walked to put runners at the corners with two outs, the Titans put a play on, with Colon breaking towards second on the pitch. Catcher Steve Rodriguez bluffed a throw to second and faked Garneau out of his jockstrap. Garneau got caught in a rundown between third and home - when he made his last ditch attempt to get back to third base, 3B Haerther dropped a throw that would have easily retired Garneau to end the inning. Gary Brown took advantage of the miscue by driving a basehit (on guess what - a 1-2 pitch) through the left side of the infield to score both runners and give the Titans a quick 5-0 lead over UCLA and their wunderkind pitcher.
Dustin Garneau led off the second inning with a walk and advanced to third on a Joe Scott sacrifice and a stolen base. After Colon walked to put runners at the corners with two outs, the Titans put a play on, with Colon breaking towards second on the pitch. Catcher Steve Rodriguez bluffed a throw to second and faked Garneau out of his jockstrap. Garneau got caught in a rundown between third and home - when he made his last ditch attempt to get back to third base, 3B Haerther dropped a throw that would have easily retired Garneau to end the inning. Gary Brown took advantage of the miscue by driving a basehit (on guess what - a 1-2 pitch) through the left side of the infield to score both runners and give the Titans a quick 5-0 lead over UCLA and their wunderkind pitcher.Similar to his last home start versus UC Santa Barbara, Renken's teammates spotted him to a sizeable early lead and then it was just a question of how dominant the sophomore pitcher would be for the remainder of the game. 
Answer: extremely dominant. Renken would have been carrying a perfect game into the seventh inning but for a hit-batsman in the fifth inning: with two outs in the inning, CF Blair Dunlap became the first UCLA baserunner when a 2-2 pitch came inside and hit him. (Dunlap leaned back to get out of the way of the pitch, then appeared to lean slightly back in to get plunked.)
Answer: extremely dominant. Renken would have been carrying a perfect game into the seventh inning but for a hit-batsman in the fifth inning: with two outs in the inning, CF Blair Dunlap became the first UCLA baserunner when a 2-2 pitch came inside and hit him. (Dunlap leaned back to get out of the way of the pitch, then appeared to lean slightly back in to get plunked.)Nick Ramirez led off the bottom of the sixth inning with a home run off the net in rightfield to give the Titans a 6-0 lead. Two batters later, Scott beat out a bunt single (and was retired on a great throw by RF Chris Giovanazzo when Cole's throw to first went awry) and Cole was done after 5 2/3 innings.
Renken took his no-hitter into the seventh inning and quickly retired the first two hitters he faced. But Decker, after doing his famous six-step leg stretching ritual before every pitch, dinked a soft flyball into no-man's land in left-centerfield. (Decker has banged 17 bombs this year, so both Newman and Fellhauer had to play deep and give him the respect he has earned.) The season-high crowd of 3,335 gave Renken a standing ovation after he surrendered his first hit of the game.
The Bruins plated their first run in the top of the eighth on a leadoff triple by Dunlap and a one-out infield single by Nico Gallego. (It should have been an RBI groundout, as Brown had to wait on a high chopper and Clark scooped his throw out of the dirt just about a full step before Gallego got to the bag. Coach Serrano went out to argue with umpire Rich Padilla, but just what can you say when he just plain misses an obvious call? Umps make mistakes and this one was too innocuous to beat into the ground.)
Things got tighter than wanted in the ninth inning. After a lengthy (ten pitch) one-out at-bat in which the home crowd got into it by counting along ("1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6!") with each of Decker's leg ticks, he finally won the battle and walked. With two outs, Dunlap hit one deep to right-center that just eluded a diving Fellhauer: the triple made it 6-2. A single by Giovanazzo made it 6-3 and brought closer Nick Ramirez into the game. With the southpaw pitcher naturally falling off to the third-base side of the mound, Gallego adroitly bunted the first pitch to the first-base side of the mound for an uncontested base hit that brought the tying run to the plate. UCLA Coach John "The Sheriff" Savage sent Gabe Cohen to the plate as a pinch-hitter to try to tie the game with one swing. But a filthy 1-2 hook buckled Cohen's knees and he took a called third strike to end the game, giving Nick Ramirez his fifth save of the season.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So what did we learn Friday night?
Experience and coaching make a huge difference in baseball. At this point in their college careers, the Renken vs. Cole match-up was a pitcher vs. a thrower. Renken may not have the raw physical talent of Cole to throw in the high 90's, but he has tremendous command of his pitches and a repertoire of pitches he can go to with confidence regardless of the count. He threw 118 pitches in the game - 85 for strikes. Cole walked four and struck out just two: his 102 pitches included 65 strikes. But beware, Titans fans: enjoy it now....because this kid looks like the real deal and he is going to be a force when he gets more experience and coaching. The three biggest hits of the game off him (Clark's RBI single, Davis' two-run homer and Brown's two-RBI single) were all on 1-2 counts.It was a nice night for Nick Ramirez: a home run and a save. Have the Titans ever had a guy before that can get home runs and saves in the same game?
Let me know if you can think of anybody.
Let me know if you can think of anybody.The Titans were 4-4 in stolen bases last night. During the recent hot sreak, their stolen base percentage has been off the charts. I would expect them to continue running aggressively until their opponent demonstrates they can be stopped, just as happened in the first two games last week at Cal Poly.
Add one more chapter to the Jared Clark Legend in his career at Cal State Fullerton.
Some of his best hitting has been against pitchers projected for major league stardom. Who can forget his three-run homer in the 2006 CWS against North Carolina's Andrew Miller, the national Co-Player of the Year (along with Wes Roemer)? Or how about the two-run first-inning homer against Stephen Strasburg of San Diego State, considered the best collegiate pitching prospect in at least one generation? One year to the day after torching Strasburg, Clark got a clutch two-out hit against Gerrit Cole, considered by many scouts as the best pitcher in the 2009 draft. If Clark had not come up with that hit, the game last night could have played much differently.Tonight should be a great match-up at Jackie Robinson Stadium between two of the country's premier freshman pitchers: Noe Ramirez (6-1, 2.91) for the Titans and Trevor Bauer (8-3, 2.68) for the Bruins. The game starts at 6:00. With two busloads of Titans fans coming to the game and many more driving to the game directly, we should have a good show of support as the Titans continue their quest for a national seed. It should be fun.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
UCLA Series Preview
By FullertonBaseballFan
Cal State Fullerton’s season was teetering on the brink a few weeks ago with nothing assured for where things were headed for the post-season. Fullerton swept both UC Davis and UC Santa Barbara and won the first two games of the Cal Poly series and 13 of 14 games overall before dropping the final game in San Luis Obispo. The Titans are playing with a great deal of confidence and are now on course for a national top eight seed that would guarantee hosting a regional and a super regional if they won their regional. Fullerton heads into this weekend with lots of momentum and will be playing a non-conference series against an opponent they have played more games against than any other team over the last two seasons, the UCLA Bruins. The Titans went 9-2 against UCLA the last two years and eliminated the Bruins in a super regional two years ago and a regional last season.
UCLA once again came into this season with high expectations despite losing 3/4 of their infield, their catcher and their Friday SP. The Bruins were picked #12 by Baseball America, who infamously picked UCLA #1 going into last season, and picked by the coaches in the Pac 10 conference to finish second. But much as they did in 2008, UCLA once again has failed to live up to those predictions and is 25-24 and 14-10 in conf in what has been a very down year for the Pac-10 with the conference unlikely to have more than three teams playing in regionals.
The Bruins got off to a terrible 2-10 start and were still only 13-19 in the middle of April before the light bulb started to go on. UCLA went on a 10-3 run, which included a sweep of Washington and a series win over Oregon State, to get back over .500 and start having thoughts of playing in a regional. The Bruins reverted back to their inconsistent ways last weekend when they lost a series at home to Cal and the play that pretty much decided the series was a fly ball that was dropped in LF in the 9th inning that the Bears converted into two runs and a win. UCLA’s RPI is in the mid 70’s and their hopes for qualifying for a regional are slim.
LINEUP
The offense was one of the main reasons UCLA failed to live up to expectations last season, with several players having major regression from previous performance levels, and head coach John Savage decided it was time to shake things up when he hired long time Fullerton assistant coach Rick Vanderhook. The offense at UCLA is still a work in progress with the Bruins ranking in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories in the Pac 10 but when looked at in the big picture that isn’t too impressive.
UCLA is hitting .284 (4th in the conf but only 225th nationally), has scored 293 R’s (4th in the conf but only 213th nationally), has a .438 SLG % (4th in the conf but only 176th nationally) and has hit 47 HR’s (4th in the conf) in a ballpark with short 370 ft power alleys that are similar to ballparks you will find in the south. A big part of UCLA’s problem is making contact because they are next to last in the conf in K’s and are averaging about eight per game. One area that the Bruins have excelled in is being patient at the plate, taking pitches and HBP’s. UCLA is 3rd in the conf with 216 BB’s and 2nd in the conf with 65 HBP’s (including 17 by one player) and is 4th in the conf with a .386 OBP. The Bruins will try play some little ball and try to run some and bunt some, ranking 5th in the conf with 34 SAC’s and 51 SB’s.
All three players that UCLA lost in their infield were very good defensive players so it is not surprising that the Bruins have had some issues defensively. UCLA has committed 58 errors for a .967 fielding % and has committed 32 errors around the infield along with another 8 by their pitchers. The Bruins have only turned 27 DP’s, which is last in the Pac 10. UCLA has a solid CF but their corner OF defense has also been an issue. Despite breaking in new catchers, the Bruins have been the best team in the Pac 10 at stopping the running game (27-53 SB’s) but they have struggled with blocking pitches and have allowed 61 WP’s/PB’s, ranking 8th in the conf.
Infield/DH
C – UCLA has been breaking in new players at C after losing three year starter Ryan Babineau. FR Steve Rodriguez (LH – .179-1-7-1) and SR Gino Aielli (RH – .350-2-11-5) have been splitting time with Rodriguez catching most of the time vs. RHP’s and usually hitting 9th. Rodriguez is a little better defensively but Aielli is much better offensively. Rodriguez leads the team with 8 SAC’s. Aielli has the highest AVG on the team and UCLA also has him play some 3B and DH to get his bat in the lineup and he usually hits 6th or 7th. He is primarily a singles hitter with only one extra base hit in 54 AB’s in conf games. Baserunners are 14-21 on SB’s against Rodriguez and 12-19 on SB’s against Aielli.
1B – SR Cody Decker (RH – .321-17-41-2) is one of the leading HR hitters on the west coast and in the top 25 nationally in HR’s. Decker leads the Pac 10 in HR’s, is 5th in R’s and SLG%, 6th total bases and 9th in RBI’s. He has bounced back to have an outstanding season as the cleanup hitter after a subpar 2008 (.218-7-30-2) when he hit much worse than he did in 2007 (.307-14-57-1). Decker has a big swing and Decker strikes out about 1/3 of the time and is 6th in the Pac 10 with 48 K’s. He is patient at the plate and walks quite a bit (4th in the Pac 10 in BB’s) and has been pitched around some due to his ability to change a game with one swing of the bat. Decker is a big guy without much range and was the DH most of the first half of the season but has been adequate defensively. He has struggled in his career against Fullerton and is 3-19 with 1 HR.
2B – SR Eddie Murray (RH – .272-2-29-5) was a reserve for three seasons before getting an opportunity to play this year due to the graduation of Alden Carrithers. Murray has been hitting at the top of the lineup most of the season and has been the leadoff hitter for the past month. He leads the conf in HBP’s (and is in the top 20 nationally), is 6th in OBP and 7th in walks. Murray has struggled with weekend pitching and is only hitting .217 in conf games and strikes out about 20% of the time (32 K’s), which is a high rate for a singles hitter. He is among the team leaders with 6 SAC’s. He played mostly 3B prior to this season and has struggled with the position change and has made 12 errors.
SS – Soph Niko Gallego (RH – .267-0-22-5) has started every game at SS after backing up Brandon Crawford and Carrithers last season. He usually hits 8th or 9th and does not have much pop in his bat with a .323 SLG % and strikes out about 20% of the time (28 K’s), which is too much for a singles hitter. He is a scrappy player who will bunt (5 SAC’s) and take a HBP (5th in the conf with 11) and has hit .309 in conf games. Gallego is average defensively and has limited range (last in assists in the conf at SS) and has made 8 errors and would probably be better at 2B, where he was projected to play coming into the season.
3B – This has been a platoon situation with several players manning the hot corner after Jermaine Curtis was drafted after last season. The players most likely to play 3B this weekend are Casey Haerther, Aielli and FR Tyler Rahmatulla (.224 in 67 AB’s). Rahmatulla played SS in HS and provides better defense at 3B than Aielli but is struggling offensively with the transition to D1 and has only one extra base hit. FR Chris Amezquita (.263 in 57 AB’s) has more power than Rahmatulla and has also played at 3B but has not started there the last three weeks.
DH – JR Casey Haerther (RH – .320-8-35-4) usually hits 3rd and is the best hitter on the team when he is healthy, which he hasn’t been after breaking a toe against Stanford a month ago and missing seven games except for a couple of pinch-hit appearances. Haerther was playing either 3B or 1B prior to the injury but was limited to being the DH the last three weeks before starting at 3B on Tues against Long Beach. He has been affected by the injury because he is only hitting .238 in conf games. Haerther is a patient hitter who consistently squares up hard line drives to all fields. He was the best all-around hitter on the team last year (2008 – .324-12-52-10) and is 8-27 in his career against Fullerton, including 2 HR’s in the regional last season. If Haerther is able to play 3B then Aielli or Chris Giovinazzo (RH – .299-1-12-1) would be the DH.
Outfield
LF – JR Gabe Cohen (RH – .276-5-28-5) has started almost every game in LF but dropped a fly ball in the 9th inning last Friday that ended up being the difference in the game. Cohen has played better this year than he did last season (2008 – .204-9-28-9) when his game fell off the map after a FR All-American season in 2007 (.345-10-36-4). He usually bats 6th or 7th and has plus power when he makes contact but that has been a big problem because he strikes out about 30% of the time (37 K’s). Cohen has struggled in his career against Fullerton and is 3-20 against the Titans. He wasn’t in the lineup in the last two games against Cal or against Long Beach and the other options in the OF would be Giovinazzo, Brett Krill (RH – .250 in 20 AB’s) or Marc Navarro (LH – .143 in 28 AB’s).
CF – JR Blair Dunlap (RH – .290-6-32-13) has gone from a part-time player last season (2008 – .250-2-16-3) who struggled with injuries to being one of the better players on the team. He is UCLA’s fastest runner (9th in the conf in SB’s) and was batting leadoff earlier in the year. Dunlap has started to hit for power with 5 HR’s and 22 RBI’s in conf games and has been moved into the middle of the lineup to take advantage of his run production. With the increase in power has also come lots of K’s because Dunlap is striking out over 20% of the time (40 K’s). He is a good defensive OF and covers ground well. Dunlap hit very well against Fullerton last year and went 9-23 with one HR, 5 RBI’s and three multi-hit games.
RF – JR Justin Uribe (LH – .323-3-21-3) is the only real LH threat in the lineup and has the 2nd highest AVG on the team. After breaking into the lineup as a FR as an OF/P, big things were expected for Uribe last season but he only had 53 AB’s (.283 BA) and missed most of the season after having surgery when he injured his elbow while pitching. He doesn’t hit for much power but does a good job of spraying the ball around the field. Uribe is a decent OF and had a plus arm before the injury. He wore out Fullerton as a FR with four games with two hits each and is 9-16 in his career against the Titans.
PITCHING
UCLA anticipated having a good pitching staff after bringing back most of their pitching staff from last season except for their Friday SP and bringing in two very high profile recruits. The pitching staff struggled early as the coaching staff was figuring out which pitchers would work best in which roles and some of the pitchers were shuffled from the rotation to the bullpen and vice versa. The Bruins have been pitching much better lately and that is a big reason why UCLA has played better after their very poor start. UCLA is #23 in the country with a 4.21 team ERA, #19 in hits allowed per game and #8 in strikeouts. The Bruins have allowed five runs or less in 19 of the last 22 games and the leaders on the pitching staff are their FR SP’s who are the starters on Fri and Sat. UCLA thought they would have a deeper bullpen with so many experienced pitchers but that hasn’t been the case.
Starters
Fri SP – FR Gerrit Cole (RHP – 4-5, 3.34 ERA, 12 starts, 73 IP, 48 H, 30 BB, 93 K, .189 BA, 7 HR) was drafted in the 1st round last June and surprised everybody by ending up on campus and turning down a signing bonus worth several million dollars. Cole is a pure power pitcher and uses a high 90’s fastball, curveball and changeup to get hitters out. He is averaging 11.5 K’s per 9 IP (9th in the country) and averaging 5.9 H allowed per 9 IP (4th in the country). The only things that have gotten Cole into trouble are the occasional HR and some bouts with wildness because he leads the team in BB’s and WP’s. Cole had a 1 hitter going into the 9th inning last Friday but he allowed 5 BB’s in the game and along with a dropped fly ball, that was enough to saddle him with a 3-2 loss despite 11 K’s. He lost the previous start 3-2 at Oregon when the defense let him down again and contributed to two unearned runs. In his prior start at Oregon State, Cole allowed 5 R in 5 IP due to 6 BB’s in one of his shorter outings of the season and he was removed after 121 pitches, his highest pitch count prior to last Friday against Cal when he threw 122 pitches in 8 1/3 IP. Baserunners are 4-7 in SB attempts against Cole.
Sat SP – FR Trevor Bauer (RHP – 8-3, 2.68 ERA, 18 apps, 8 starts, 87 IP, 71 H, 20 BB, 79 K, .225 BA, 4 HR) was supposed to be a HS SR but decided he wanted to get his college career started a year early and he has shown that he was more than ready to pitch at the college level. Bauer has a four pitch mix with a low 90’s fastball and very good control but doesn’t mind pitching inside to keep hitters off the plate and has 8 HBP’s. He started the season working out of the bullpen and as a midweek SP but was so effective that he pitched his way into a weekend SP role. Bauer has been dominant in his last four starts with a 2.06 ERA and 22 H allowed in 35 IP with three CG wins and he left the other start after 8 IP with a lead only to see the bullpen blow the game. The coaching staff has been allowing him to build up fairly high pitch counts because Bauer has thrown 120+ pitches in each of his last three starts. He is 3rd in the conf in IP and 6th in the conf in ERA and K’s. Baserunners are 4-7 in SB attempts against Bauer.
Sun SP – JR Charles Brewer (RHP – 3-5, 3.96 ERA, 12 starts, 64 IP, 71 H, 17 BB, 61 K, .291 BA, 6 HR) has a low 90’s fastball with a solid curveball and changeup. He was off his game against Cal last week and was knocked out of the game early, allowing 4 R in 3 2/3 IP. In his previous five starts Brewer had a 2.67 ERA with 25 H allowed in 30 IP. Brewer doesn’t usually pitch deep into games and is often taken out after about 6 IP. He has solid control but he will pitch inside and leads the team with 10 HBP’s. Brewer has been able to do a better job of keeping runs off the board than last year (2008 – 9-4, 5.10 ERA, 19 apps, 13 starts, 97 IP, 108 H, 31 BB, 69 K, .281 BA, 12 HR) because he has done avoided giving up HR’s and big innings. He is outstanding at controlling the running game and has allowed only 1-7 SB’s. Fullerton saw quite a bit of Brewer last year when allowed 9 R in 5 2/3 IP in two midweek games before beating Fullerton in a regional game when he allowed 3 R in 5 IP.
Relievers
The closer for UCLA is JR Gavin Brooks (LHP – 0-3, 4.70 ERA, 8 saves, 23 apps, 31 IP, 27 H, 19 BB, 30 K, .243 BA, 1 HR), who has had an interesting season and career. Brooks was a SP in his first two seasons (2008 – 6-3, 5.07 ERA, 14 starts, 71 IP, 68 H, 53 BB, 62 K, .252 BA, 9 HR) before control problems caused by some issues with his mechanics resulted in Brooks moving to the bullpen this season. He allowed 10 R (7 ER) in his first two apps but has been solid most of the time since then with a 2.83 ERA in his last 21 apps. Brooks has a fastball that sits in the upper 80’s but tends to have issues with his command of his secondary pitches (curve, changeup). He leads the Pac 10 in saves, including six in conf games, but has blown two saves and has allowed 8 BB’s in 12 2/3 IP in conf games. Brooks is another pitcher that Fullerton has seen plenty of. He was dominant with 12 K’s in a CG 2-1 loss in the 2007 super regional but allowed 8 R on 6 H and 6 BB in 6 IP in his two other apps against the Titans.
Of the four other relievers that UCLA would be likely to use, three of them are also LHP’s – Soph Matt Grace (3-2, 4.06 ERA, 20 apps, 3 starts, 38 IP, 40 H, 10 BB, 30 K, .268 BA, 3 HR), Soph Rob Rasmussen (3-2, 6.75 ERA, 1 save, 14 apps, 6 starts, 40 IP, 49 H, 21 BB, 45 K, .304 BA, 6 HR) and SR Brendan Lafferty (0-2, 6.00 ERA, 18 apps, 27 IP, 37 H, 17 BB, 29 K, .333 BA, 1 HR). Grace was used early as a midweek SP and was ineffective in that role but has thrived in the bullpen and in eight apps in conf games has a 1.15 ERA in 16 IP, allowing only 7 H and 3 BB with 15 K’s. He allowed 6 R on 7 H and 4 BB in 4 2/3 IP in three apps against Fullerton last season (2008 – 0-0, 3.55 ERA, 17 apps, 33 IP, 31 H, 20 BB, 18 K, .248 BA, 7 HR). Rasmussen was in the weekend rotation earlier in the season but was ineffective in back to back starts against USC and Arizona and has been pitching out of the bullpen since then. He allowed 6 R on 10 H in 5 IP in 2 apps against Fullerton last season (2008 – 0-2, 5.60 ERA in 18 IP). Lafferty was the most effective reliever for UCLA last season (2008 – 4-3, 3.74 ERA, 3 saves, 33 apps, 67 IP, 61 H, 30 BB, 56 K, .254 BA, 6 HR) but has struggled this season and has been passed up by others in the bullpen. Lafferty has allowed 4 R on 6 H and 5 BB in 6 IP in 4 apps in his career against Fullerton.
The only RHP that would be likely to pitch this weekend would be SR Jason Novak (1-1, 7.91 ERA, 16 apps, 19 IP, 24 H, 12 BB, 20 K, .300 BA, 1 HR). Novak was also much more effective last season (2008 – 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 4 saves, 20 apps, 35 IP, 31 H, 17 BB, 28 K, .238 BA, 3 HR) but has pitched decently in limited innings in conf games (5 apps, 6 IP, 2 R). Novak has allowed 6 R on 8 H and 4 BB in 9 2/3 IP in 4 apps in his career against Fullerton, although he did allow only 1 unearned run in 4 IP in an appearance in last year’s regional game that UCLA won. The midweek SP for UCLA is Garrett Claypool (RHP – 2-1, 3.10 ERA, 12 apps, 6 starts, 29 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 37 K, .217 BA, 5 HR), who usually throws 5-6 innings during the week and doesn’t usually pitch during weekend games. Claypool has allowed 3 R’s on 6 H and 3 BB in 4 1/3 IP in two apps his career against Fullerton.
OUTLOOK
If UCLA has any chance of making it into a regional they are going to have to win this series and their series next weekend at ASU. The Bruins definitely have a pitching staff that is more than capable of pulling off the upset but their offense has been very inconsistent against weekend pitching, scoring four runs or less in 9 of 18 games over the last six weekend series and hitting only .276 in conf games. Also, UCLA usually has played poorly against Fullerton and teams coached by John Savage are 4-21 against the Titans (2-7 at UC Irvine, 2-14 at UCLA) so there is definitely some sort of mental block for the Bruins when they play Fullerton.
The Titans are playing about as well as they were earlier in the season when they went on an 18-2 run against some tough competition and are a more well rounded team than UCLA. There aren’t likely to be many runs scored in this series because of the pitching staffs of both teams and the Bruins could win this series with the way that Cole and Bauer are pitching but Fullerton is on too much of a roll to pick against the Titans this weekend and Fullerton should win two of three games in the series.
Cal State Fullerton’s season was teetering on the brink a few weeks ago with nothing assured for where things were headed for the post-season. Fullerton swept both UC Davis and UC Santa Barbara and won the first two games of the Cal Poly series and 13 of 14 games overall before dropping the final game in San Luis Obispo. The Titans are playing with a great deal of confidence and are now on course for a national top eight seed that would guarantee hosting a regional and a super regional if they won their regional. Fullerton heads into this weekend with lots of momentum and will be playing a non-conference series against an opponent they have played more games against than any other team over the last two seasons, the UCLA Bruins. The Titans went 9-2 against UCLA the last two years and eliminated the Bruins in a super regional two years ago and a regional last season.
UCLA once again came into this season with high expectations despite losing 3/4 of their infield, their catcher and their Friday SP. The Bruins were picked #12 by Baseball America, who infamously picked UCLA #1 going into last season, and picked by the coaches in the Pac 10 conference to finish second. But much as they did in 2008, UCLA once again has failed to live up to those predictions and is 25-24 and 14-10 in conf in what has been a very down year for the Pac-10 with the conference unlikely to have more than three teams playing in regionals.
The Bruins got off to a terrible 2-10 start and were still only 13-19 in the middle of April before the light bulb started to go on. UCLA went on a 10-3 run, which included a sweep of Washington and a series win over Oregon State, to get back over .500 and start having thoughts of playing in a regional. The Bruins reverted back to their inconsistent ways last weekend when they lost a series at home to Cal and the play that pretty much decided the series was a fly ball that was dropped in LF in the 9th inning that the Bears converted into two runs and a win. UCLA’s RPI is in the mid 70’s and their hopes for qualifying for a regional are slim.
LINEUP
The offense was one of the main reasons UCLA failed to live up to expectations last season, with several players having major regression from previous performance levels, and head coach John Savage decided it was time to shake things up when he hired long time Fullerton assistant coach Rick Vanderhook. The offense at UCLA is still a work in progress with the Bruins ranking in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories in the Pac 10 but when looked at in the big picture that isn’t too impressive.
UCLA is hitting .284 (4th in the conf but only 225th nationally), has scored 293 R’s (4th in the conf but only 213th nationally), has a .438 SLG % (4th in the conf but only 176th nationally) and has hit 47 HR’s (4th in the conf) in a ballpark with short 370 ft power alleys that are similar to ballparks you will find in the south. A big part of UCLA’s problem is making contact because they are next to last in the conf in K’s and are averaging about eight per game. One area that the Bruins have excelled in is being patient at the plate, taking pitches and HBP’s. UCLA is 3rd in the conf with 216 BB’s and 2nd in the conf with 65 HBP’s (including 17 by one player) and is 4th in the conf with a .386 OBP. The Bruins will try play some little ball and try to run some and bunt some, ranking 5th in the conf with 34 SAC’s and 51 SB’s.
All three players that UCLA lost in their infield were very good defensive players so it is not surprising that the Bruins have had some issues defensively. UCLA has committed 58 errors for a .967 fielding % and has committed 32 errors around the infield along with another 8 by their pitchers. The Bruins have only turned 27 DP’s, which is last in the Pac 10. UCLA has a solid CF but their corner OF defense has also been an issue. Despite breaking in new catchers, the Bruins have been the best team in the Pac 10 at stopping the running game (27-53 SB’s) but they have struggled with blocking pitches and have allowed 61 WP’s/PB’s, ranking 8th in the conf.
Infield/DH
C – UCLA has been breaking in new players at C after losing three year starter Ryan Babineau. FR Steve Rodriguez (LH – .179-1-7-1) and SR Gino Aielli (RH – .350-2-11-5) have been splitting time with Rodriguez catching most of the time vs. RHP’s and usually hitting 9th. Rodriguez is a little better defensively but Aielli is much better offensively. Rodriguez leads the team with 8 SAC’s. Aielli has the highest AVG on the team and UCLA also has him play some 3B and DH to get his bat in the lineup and he usually hits 6th or 7th. He is primarily a singles hitter with only one extra base hit in 54 AB’s in conf games. Baserunners are 14-21 on SB’s against Rodriguez and 12-19 on SB’s against Aielli.
1B – SR Cody Decker (RH – .321-17-41-2) is one of the leading HR hitters on the west coast and in the top 25 nationally in HR’s. Decker leads the Pac 10 in HR’s, is 5th in R’s and SLG%, 6th total bases and 9th in RBI’s. He has bounced back to have an outstanding season as the cleanup hitter after a subpar 2008 (.218-7-30-2) when he hit much worse than he did in 2007 (.307-14-57-1). Decker has a big swing and Decker strikes out about 1/3 of the time and is 6th in the Pac 10 with 48 K’s. He is patient at the plate and walks quite a bit (4th in the Pac 10 in BB’s) and has been pitched around some due to his ability to change a game with one swing of the bat. Decker is a big guy without much range and was the DH most of the first half of the season but has been adequate defensively. He has struggled in his career against Fullerton and is 3-19 with 1 HR.
2B – SR Eddie Murray (RH – .272-2-29-5) was a reserve for three seasons before getting an opportunity to play this year due to the graduation of Alden Carrithers. Murray has been hitting at the top of the lineup most of the season and has been the leadoff hitter for the past month. He leads the conf in HBP’s (and is in the top 20 nationally), is 6th in OBP and 7th in walks. Murray has struggled with weekend pitching and is only hitting .217 in conf games and strikes out about 20% of the time (32 K’s), which is a high rate for a singles hitter. He is among the team leaders with 6 SAC’s. He played mostly 3B prior to this season and has struggled with the position change and has made 12 errors.
SS – Soph Niko Gallego (RH – .267-0-22-5) has started every game at SS after backing up Brandon Crawford and Carrithers last season. He usually hits 8th or 9th and does not have much pop in his bat with a .323 SLG % and strikes out about 20% of the time (28 K’s), which is too much for a singles hitter. He is a scrappy player who will bunt (5 SAC’s) and take a HBP (5th in the conf with 11) and has hit .309 in conf games. Gallego is average defensively and has limited range (last in assists in the conf at SS) and has made 8 errors and would probably be better at 2B, where he was projected to play coming into the season.
3B – This has been a platoon situation with several players manning the hot corner after Jermaine Curtis was drafted after last season. The players most likely to play 3B this weekend are Casey Haerther, Aielli and FR Tyler Rahmatulla (.224 in 67 AB’s). Rahmatulla played SS in HS and provides better defense at 3B than Aielli but is struggling offensively with the transition to D1 and has only one extra base hit. FR Chris Amezquita (.263 in 57 AB’s) has more power than Rahmatulla and has also played at 3B but has not started there the last three weeks.
DH – JR Casey Haerther (RH – .320-8-35-4) usually hits 3rd and is the best hitter on the team when he is healthy, which he hasn’t been after breaking a toe against Stanford a month ago and missing seven games except for a couple of pinch-hit appearances. Haerther was playing either 3B or 1B prior to the injury but was limited to being the DH the last three weeks before starting at 3B on Tues against Long Beach. He has been affected by the injury because he is only hitting .238 in conf games. Haerther is a patient hitter who consistently squares up hard line drives to all fields. He was the best all-around hitter on the team last year (2008 – .324-12-52-10) and is 8-27 in his career against Fullerton, including 2 HR’s in the regional last season. If Haerther is able to play 3B then Aielli or Chris Giovinazzo (RH – .299-1-12-1) would be the DH.
Outfield
LF – JR Gabe Cohen (RH – .276-5-28-5) has started almost every game in LF but dropped a fly ball in the 9th inning last Friday that ended up being the difference in the game. Cohen has played better this year than he did last season (2008 – .204-9-28-9) when his game fell off the map after a FR All-American season in 2007 (.345-10-36-4). He usually bats 6th or 7th and has plus power when he makes contact but that has been a big problem because he strikes out about 30% of the time (37 K’s). Cohen has struggled in his career against Fullerton and is 3-20 against the Titans. He wasn’t in the lineup in the last two games against Cal or against Long Beach and the other options in the OF would be Giovinazzo, Brett Krill (RH – .250 in 20 AB’s) or Marc Navarro (LH – .143 in 28 AB’s).
CF – JR Blair Dunlap (RH – .290-6-32-13) has gone from a part-time player last season (2008 – .250-2-16-3) who struggled with injuries to being one of the better players on the team. He is UCLA’s fastest runner (9th in the conf in SB’s) and was batting leadoff earlier in the year. Dunlap has started to hit for power with 5 HR’s and 22 RBI’s in conf games and has been moved into the middle of the lineup to take advantage of his run production. With the increase in power has also come lots of K’s because Dunlap is striking out over 20% of the time (40 K’s). He is a good defensive OF and covers ground well. Dunlap hit very well against Fullerton last year and went 9-23 with one HR, 5 RBI’s and three multi-hit games.
RF – JR Justin Uribe (LH – .323-3-21-3) is the only real LH threat in the lineup and has the 2nd highest AVG on the team. After breaking into the lineup as a FR as an OF/P, big things were expected for Uribe last season but he only had 53 AB’s (.283 BA) and missed most of the season after having surgery when he injured his elbow while pitching. He doesn’t hit for much power but does a good job of spraying the ball around the field. Uribe is a decent OF and had a plus arm before the injury. He wore out Fullerton as a FR with four games with two hits each and is 9-16 in his career against the Titans.
PITCHING
UCLA anticipated having a good pitching staff after bringing back most of their pitching staff from last season except for their Friday SP and bringing in two very high profile recruits. The pitching staff struggled early as the coaching staff was figuring out which pitchers would work best in which roles and some of the pitchers were shuffled from the rotation to the bullpen and vice versa. The Bruins have been pitching much better lately and that is a big reason why UCLA has played better after their very poor start. UCLA is #23 in the country with a 4.21 team ERA, #19 in hits allowed per game and #8 in strikeouts. The Bruins have allowed five runs or less in 19 of the last 22 games and the leaders on the pitching staff are their FR SP’s who are the starters on Fri and Sat. UCLA thought they would have a deeper bullpen with so many experienced pitchers but that hasn’t been the case.
Starters
Fri SP – FR Gerrit Cole (RHP – 4-5, 3.34 ERA, 12 starts, 73 IP, 48 H, 30 BB, 93 K, .189 BA, 7 HR) was drafted in the 1st round last June and surprised everybody by ending up on campus and turning down a signing bonus worth several million dollars. Cole is a pure power pitcher and uses a high 90’s fastball, curveball and changeup to get hitters out. He is averaging 11.5 K’s per 9 IP (9th in the country) and averaging 5.9 H allowed per 9 IP (4th in the country). The only things that have gotten Cole into trouble are the occasional HR and some bouts with wildness because he leads the team in BB’s and WP’s. Cole had a 1 hitter going into the 9th inning last Friday but he allowed 5 BB’s in the game and along with a dropped fly ball, that was enough to saddle him with a 3-2 loss despite 11 K’s. He lost the previous start 3-2 at Oregon when the defense let him down again and contributed to two unearned runs. In his prior start at Oregon State, Cole allowed 5 R in 5 IP due to 6 BB’s in one of his shorter outings of the season and he was removed after 121 pitches, his highest pitch count prior to last Friday against Cal when he threw 122 pitches in 8 1/3 IP. Baserunners are 4-7 in SB attempts against Cole.
Sat SP – FR Trevor Bauer (RHP – 8-3, 2.68 ERA, 18 apps, 8 starts, 87 IP, 71 H, 20 BB, 79 K, .225 BA, 4 HR) was supposed to be a HS SR but decided he wanted to get his college career started a year early and he has shown that he was more than ready to pitch at the college level. Bauer has a four pitch mix with a low 90’s fastball and very good control but doesn’t mind pitching inside to keep hitters off the plate and has 8 HBP’s. He started the season working out of the bullpen and as a midweek SP but was so effective that he pitched his way into a weekend SP role. Bauer has been dominant in his last four starts with a 2.06 ERA and 22 H allowed in 35 IP with three CG wins and he left the other start after 8 IP with a lead only to see the bullpen blow the game. The coaching staff has been allowing him to build up fairly high pitch counts because Bauer has thrown 120+ pitches in each of his last three starts. He is 3rd in the conf in IP and 6th in the conf in ERA and K’s. Baserunners are 4-7 in SB attempts against Bauer.
Sun SP – JR Charles Brewer (RHP – 3-5, 3.96 ERA, 12 starts, 64 IP, 71 H, 17 BB, 61 K, .291 BA, 6 HR) has a low 90’s fastball with a solid curveball and changeup. He was off his game against Cal last week and was knocked out of the game early, allowing 4 R in 3 2/3 IP. In his previous five starts Brewer had a 2.67 ERA with 25 H allowed in 30 IP. Brewer doesn’t usually pitch deep into games and is often taken out after about 6 IP. He has solid control but he will pitch inside and leads the team with 10 HBP’s. Brewer has been able to do a better job of keeping runs off the board than last year (2008 – 9-4, 5.10 ERA, 19 apps, 13 starts, 97 IP, 108 H, 31 BB, 69 K, .281 BA, 12 HR) because he has done avoided giving up HR’s and big innings. He is outstanding at controlling the running game and has allowed only 1-7 SB’s. Fullerton saw quite a bit of Brewer last year when allowed 9 R in 5 2/3 IP in two midweek games before beating Fullerton in a regional game when he allowed 3 R in 5 IP.
Relievers
The closer for UCLA is JR Gavin Brooks (LHP – 0-3, 4.70 ERA, 8 saves, 23 apps, 31 IP, 27 H, 19 BB, 30 K, .243 BA, 1 HR), who has had an interesting season and career. Brooks was a SP in his first two seasons (2008 – 6-3, 5.07 ERA, 14 starts, 71 IP, 68 H, 53 BB, 62 K, .252 BA, 9 HR) before control problems caused by some issues with his mechanics resulted in Brooks moving to the bullpen this season. He allowed 10 R (7 ER) in his first two apps but has been solid most of the time since then with a 2.83 ERA in his last 21 apps. Brooks has a fastball that sits in the upper 80’s but tends to have issues with his command of his secondary pitches (curve, changeup). He leads the Pac 10 in saves, including six in conf games, but has blown two saves and has allowed 8 BB’s in 12 2/3 IP in conf games. Brooks is another pitcher that Fullerton has seen plenty of. He was dominant with 12 K’s in a CG 2-1 loss in the 2007 super regional but allowed 8 R on 6 H and 6 BB in 6 IP in his two other apps against the Titans.
Of the four other relievers that UCLA would be likely to use, three of them are also LHP’s – Soph Matt Grace (3-2, 4.06 ERA, 20 apps, 3 starts, 38 IP, 40 H, 10 BB, 30 K, .268 BA, 3 HR), Soph Rob Rasmussen (3-2, 6.75 ERA, 1 save, 14 apps, 6 starts, 40 IP, 49 H, 21 BB, 45 K, .304 BA, 6 HR) and SR Brendan Lafferty (0-2, 6.00 ERA, 18 apps, 27 IP, 37 H, 17 BB, 29 K, .333 BA, 1 HR). Grace was used early as a midweek SP and was ineffective in that role but has thrived in the bullpen and in eight apps in conf games has a 1.15 ERA in 16 IP, allowing only 7 H and 3 BB with 15 K’s. He allowed 6 R on 7 H and 4 BB in 4 2/3 IP in three apps against Fullerton last season (2008 – 0-0, 3.55 ERA, 17 apps, 33 IP, 31 H, 20 BB, 18 K, .248 BA, 7 HR). Rasmussen was in the weekend rotation earlier in the season but was ineffective in back to back starts against USC and Arizona and has been pitching out of the bullpen since then. He allowed 6 R on 10 H in 5 IP in 2 apps against Fullerton last season (2008 – 0-2, 5.60 ERA in 18 IP). Lafferty was the most effective reliever for UCLA last season (2008 – 4-3, 3.74 ERA, 3 saves, 33 apps, 67 IP, 61 H, 30 BB, 56 K, .254 BA, 6 HR) but has struggled this season and has been passed up by others in the bullpen. Lafferty has allowed 4 R on 6 H and 5 BB in 6 IP in 4 apps in his career against Fullerton.
The only RHP that would be likely to pitch this weekend would be SR Jason Novak (1-1, 7.91 ERA, 16 apps, 19 IP, 24 H, 12 BB, 20 K, .300 BA, 1 HR). Novak was also much more effective last season (2008 – 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 4 saves, 20 apps, 35 IP, 31 H, 17 BB, 28 K, .238 BA, 3 HR) but has pitched decently in limited innings in conf games (5 apps, 6 IP, 2 R). Novak has allowed 6 R on 8 H and 4 BB in 9 2/3 IP in 4 apps in his career against Fullerton, although he did allow only 1 unearned run in 4 IP in an appearance in last year’s regional game that UCLA won. The midweek SP for UCLA is Garrett Claypool (RHP – 2-1, 3.10 ERA, 12 apps, 6 starts, 29 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 37 K, .217 BA, 5 HR), who usually throws 5-6 innings during the week and doesn’t usually pitch during weekend games. Claypool has allowed 3 R’s on 6 H and 3 BB in 4 1/3 IP in two apps his career against Fullerton.
OUTLOOK
If UCLA has any chance of making it into a regional they are going to have to win this series and their series next weekend at ASU. The Bruins definitely have a pitching staff that is more than capable of pulling off the upset but their offense has been very inconsistent against weekend pitching, scoring four runs or less in 9 of 18 games over the last six weekend series and hitting only .276 in conf games. Also, UCLA usually has played poorly against Fullerton and teams coached by John Savage are 4-21 against the Titans (2-7 at UC Irvine, 2-14 at UCLA) so there is definitely some sort of mental block for the Bruins when they play Fullerton.
The Titans are playing about as well as they were earlier in the season when they went on an 18-2 run against some tough competition and are a more well rounded team than UCLA. There aren’t likely to be many runs scored in this series because of the pitching staffs of both teams and the Bruins could win this series with the way that Cole and Bauer are pitching but Fullerton is on too much of a roll to pick against the Titans this weekend and Fullerton should win two of three games in the series.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Diamond Club: Tuffy's Titans
The May 10 edition is posted below ... please click on each individual page to enlarge for easy reading.
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