Tuesday, April 3, 2012

College Baseball BCS (April 3)

By Samuel Chi

This week's College Baseball BCS standings are perhaps even more revealing than last week's in terms of identifying teams that are ranked too high or too low in the human polls. They also show which polls are on shakier grounds, especially when it comes to ranking the lower teams in the top 25.

I made one change in the standings (only in the display, not in the formula), so that the poll rankings are no longer listed in reverse order. I think this brings more clarity when viewing the standings. I've also made this change to last week's standings as well.

(click to enlarge)

A few observations from this week's standings:

* Clearly, North Carolina State is the most under-ranked team. The Wolfpack are in the top 10 in both the RPI and ISR and yet placed no higher than 13th in the polls and are not even in the NCBWA's top 25. The most over-ranked team might be, ahem, Cal State Fullerton. The Titans are on the edges of the top 20 in the computer rankings, but are in the top 16 of every poll and as high as 10th.

* The bottom part of the NCBWA's poll is quite befuddling. It has Oklahoma at No. 22 - the only poll that has OU ranked anywhere - and it's an absurdity when you consider that the Sooners' No. 92 RPI rating is by far the worst among the teams in this week's standings. The NCBWA and the USA Today coaches poll also continue to over-rank Georgia, which at No. 54 in the RPI is also obviously not a top-25 team.

* Why did the Titans drop in all the polls after a respectable road split and winning two of three against Cal State Northridge? It didn't help that the Sun Devils went on to get swept at Oregon, but Fullerton now can ill afford not to sweep series against the weaker Big West teams. The toughest part of the Titans' schedule is over and they really need to steamroll the rest of the Big West, which is not very good, to stay up in the rankings.

* This week's conference breakdown: SEC (8), ACC (7), Pac-12 (6), Big 12 (4), C-USA (3), WCC (2), Southland (2), Big Ten (1), Big East (1), Big West (1), Southern (1), WAC (1).

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